Courtland Sutton Under 19.5 Longest Reception (-115)
Broncos vs. Chiefs | 8:15 p.m. ET
It's become clear that the Denver Broncos are utilizing Courtland Sutton differently this season. His average depth of target (aDOT) is 11.0 yards, which is the lowest amongst Broncos receivers and also the lowest of his NFL career.
In five games this season, only two of Sutton's 21 receptions (9.5%) have gone for 20 or more yards. In comparison, Marvin Mims has an aDOT of 20.6 — the rookie is the preferred downfield threat for Russell Wilson.
There is cause for concern regarding the weather in Kansas City for Thursday Night Football. There is a high likelihood of heavy gusts of wind and a potential for rain, which could negatively impact the deep passing game. As a result, the Broncos could have Sutton run shorter routes in an attempt to adapt to less-than-ideal conditions.
The possibility of the Broncos, who are double-digit underdogs, playing from behind is less concerning considering that Sutton will likely be facing experienced cornerback L'Jarius Sneed.
Sneed's shadow resume is impressive — he's held big-name receivers like Calvin Ridley, Garrett Wilson, D.J. Moore and Justin Jefferson to a 44% catch rate and only 17 yards after the catch on eight combined receptions, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Chiefs defense ranks 10th in DVOA against the pass (per FTN Network) and allow the fifth-lowest opponent yards per attempt (per Team Rankings). Putting it all together, I think Sutton will go under his longest reception prop tonight.
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