Cowboys vs. Jaguars Odds
After a five-game losing streak from Weeks 4 to 8, it looked like the Jaguars' playoff dreams were done. But, their recent five-game stretch, and the Titans' three-game skid, have given them an outside chance of sneaking in.
While Jacksonville fights for its playoff life, the Cowboys seems all but set to be the NFC’s top Wild Card team. Their matchup next week against the Eagles could be the only game that really means much. A victory over Philly could provide some mental advantage should they meet in the playoffs.
The problem, however, is being hyped for Philly means they may overlook the Jags — Micah Parsons has already been talking about the Eagles all week.
A focused home underdog against a distracted road favorite. This seems like a perfect recipe for Jacksonville to pull off an upset.
Cowboys vs. Jaguars Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Jaguars match up statistically:
Cowboys vs. Jaguars DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 15 | 28 | |
| Pass DVOA | 17 | 30 | |
| Rush DVOA | 4 | 16 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 13 | 1 | |
| Pass DVOA | 8 | 1 | |
| Rush DVOA | 22 | 6 | |
Whatever changes Jacksonville has made recently have been exactly what the doctor ordered. Trevor Lawrence has gone from inconsistent to one of the best in the NFL. The only game he struggled was against Detroit, and injury definitely hampered his play for that one.
Even with that game included, his passer rating is 111.7 in the past five games with 10 touchdowns to zero interceptions. This is the level of play we knew Lawrence had when he was drafted.
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But while Lawrence has found his rhythm, the running game has faded. In their last four games, the Jaguars have averaged 3.35 yards per carry. Previously, they had only one game under that mark. If they could pair their early season rushing game with their present passing attack, the Jaguars would have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Defensively, Jacksonville has not had the same success as its offense. The Jaguars are 29th in yards per drive allowed and 24th in points per drive allowed. What has been their saving grace in recent weeks has been generating turnovers.
In their past five games, the Jags have forced 10 turnovers. Dallas has struggled to protect the ball recently, but a turnover or two will not be enough.
Speaking of the Cowboys offense, since Dak Prescott’s return from injury, they have played at a level to match their defense, averaging 35.7 points per game and 410 yards.
In this stretch, the passing game has answered the call when needed. The only two games under 200 yards passing were against the Lions and Colts. Both were blowout victories for Dallas.
What has made this offense scary has been the ground game. The combination of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot is something no team has an answer for. Since Prescott’s return, the Cowboys have averaged 166 rushing yards per game. Even in a down Week 14, they still averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 25 touches.
On defense the Cowboys are second only to the 49ers. They rank fifth in points yards per drive and points per drive. What makes them stand out is their ability to make splash plays, as they are first in the league with 23 turnovers.
Two weeks ago against Indianapolis, we saw how Dallas can flip a game instantly. Heading into the fourth quarter, it was just a two-point game. Then boom, the defense started making plays and led the Cowboys to a 35-point victory. They may not stop teams down-to-down as well as other elite defenses — but, if you need a game-flipping play, this is the defense you want.
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On paper, this looks like a game the Cowboys should run away with. One of the most complete teams against a team that is no more than a passing attack led by Lawrence. But these are the games head coach Doug Pederson is able to find edges to exploit.
Early in the year, the Jags took down a hyped Chargers team and then jumped out to a 14-point lead on the Eagles the next week. Later in the year, they start the game with an onside kick against Kansas City. Two of these three examples ended in losses, but these were all games against teams with preseason prestige that Pederson jumped on early.
I expect this game to be a similar story. Whether it's an aggressive fourth-down call or a trick play to flip the game, I expect Pederson to have something up his sleeve.
The difference in this contest will be a more confident Lawrence. I believe the comeback against the Ravens boosted his confidence and poise, and we saw it all come to fruition against the Titans.
The Cowboys under Mike McCarthy are known for not being the most disciplined team. They have a huge rivalry game against the Eagles coming up, and with this game meaning little for seeding, they may get caught looking ahead. On the other hand, Jacksonville is at a point where they have no losses to spare.
I trust Jacksonville to pull off an exciting upset as a home underdog.
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