We're eight days early, but it's going to look like a "White Christmas" in Western New York on Saturday night.
There is going to be at least an 80% chance of snow throughout the Bills' matchup against the Dolphins. Buffalo will surely have learned from a similar matchup last season against the Patriots, while Miami will be mostly unfamiliar with the conditions.
With that in mind, our Dolphins vs Bills player props are centered around Chris Raybon's projections. We're backing both Buffalo running backs in two different yardage markets, with clear edges on both in Raybon's numbers.
Devin Singletary
Over 40.5 Rushing Yards
Given the projected forecast in Orchard Park, it’s going to be difficult to throw the football — to say the least.
The Bills appear to have the edge on the ground over the Dolphins, with Singletary and rookie James Cook emerging as a strong one-two punch. Miami’s defense ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, but these are snowy conditions it will not be used to.
Singletary has gone over this total in nine of his 13 games this season, including four of his last five. His only under in that five-game stretch saw him fall just short with 39 rushing yards.
Pick: Devin Singletary Over 40.5 Rushing Yards |
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James Cook
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Cook has been getting a lot of hype, and his snap counts have increased of late, becoming almost level with Singletary over the last two weeks. In a game like this, though, it would make sense to go with the veteran on the ground who has played through them plenty before.
There’s still a way to back Cook, though. He’s gone over his receiving yards total in two of his last three games, and the one under was last week when he had his second-highest snap percentage of the season.
The acquisition of Nyheim Hines seemed to potentially doom Cook’s role, but that hasn’t been the case. Cook was drafted to be the pass-catching complement to Singletary, and it looks like that’s what he has become.
The Bills usually thrive passing the ball down the field, but that might not be possible given the conditions. It would make sense for Cook to be very active as a receiver, while Singletary handles the bulk of the ground work.
Raybon projects Singletary for 47 rushing yards on Saturday night, and he has Cook projected for 19.2 receiving yards compared to his line of 12.5, creating two clear ways to back each of Buffalo’s top running backs.
