NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Now let's take a look at two props with a Bet Quality of at least 6 for the Sunday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons. Since the start of last season, NFL props with a grade of 6 or higher went 3302-2544-127 (55.2% win rate).
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert
THE PICK: Under 2.5 Receptions (-125)
Bet Quality: 9/10
We need to use a Bayesian process when making prop bets. While I expected to see increased involvement for Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, it is clear he is at the bottom of a long offensive pecking order.
In last week's home opener, the second-year tight end received the same amount of targets (three) as inefficient pass-catching running back Jordan Howard. Goedert finished behind DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, fellow tight end Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor in Week 1 targets.
As the backup tight end behind All-Pro Ertz, his opportunities will always be limited. As a compounding variable, the Falcons are above average at defending tight ends, allowing a middling 69 receptions and 739 receiving yards last season. In Week 1, Vikings tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. totaled one target and zero receptions combined.
Expect a run-heavy script for the Eagles after Minnesota gashed the Atlanta defense for 172 yards, three touchdowns, and a 4.3 yards per carry average.
I would bet this prop up to -150 as a 9-graded prop with a 16% difference in expectation. In Week 1, 9-graded prop bets had a record of 26-20 (57%).
Eagles QB Carson Wentz
THE PICK: Under 25.5 Passing Completions (-114)
Bet Quality: 6/10
Staying with the run-heavy script for Philadelphia, the line of 25.5 passing completions is a very attractive under. Wentz completed 28 passes last week in a game the Eagles trailed 20-7 at halftime. With both teams having 25.5 implied totals and a point spread of Eagles -1.5, all signs point to a close battle in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
In 41 career starts, Wentz has completed 26 or more passes just 12 times (29.2%). In Philadelphia's 2017 Super Bowl season, Wentz reached that total only twice in 13 starts. In Week 1 against Washington, five different players had a rushing attempt including Alshon Jeffery's behind-the-line catch for a rushing touchdown. When the Eagles are at their best, they have a strong run/pass balance.
This prop rates 6-out-of-10 in our FantasyLabs props tool with our model projecting 3% fewer completions than the implied total of 25.7. In Week 1, 6-graded prop bets still had a record of 86-71 (55%).
