To wrap up this NFL Sunday slate, the Atlanta Falcons travel to Northwest Stadium to face the Washington Commanders for Sunday Night Football Week 17. Kickoff for SNF is set for 8:20 p.m. ET and will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
Let’s get into my Falcons vs. Commanders player props and my NFL picks for Sunday Night Football.
Falcons vs. Commanders Player Props
- Drake London Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (-120, DraftKings)
- Zach Ertz Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
- Brian Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (+104, DraftKings)
Drake London Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Quarterback change and all, Drake London is still the top target in this Falcons offense and has one of the best matchups on the slate.
While the Commanders rank 10th in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers, they are 26th in PFF’s coverage grades.
London has the fifth-highest matchup advantage against the Commanders secondary, according to PFF. With him averaging 13 yards per reception, he only needs four or five catches to go over.
He should see that level of volume at a minimum, as the market is expecting a trailing game script for the Falcons offense.
Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown (-120)
It may seem like this is too much juice for an anytime touchdown, but this price is pale in comparison to the rest of the market. Bijan Robinson’s average price to score on Sunday Night Football tonight is -143.
That implied probability of 58.8% is warranted when you look at the amount of high-value touches he receives on a game-to-game basis. This season, Robinson has averaged 3.6 red-zone rushing attempts and 0.5 red-zone passing targets.
That volume has resulted in him scoring in eight of 15 games. However, with rookie Michael Penix Jr. under center, Robinson is being leaned on more in the red zone.
Last week against the Giants, Robinson garnered seven red-zone rush attempts and one red-zone target, which led to two touchdowns. Look for him to find paydirt again tonight.
Zach Ertz Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Tight end Zach Ertz may be second on the Commanders in targets, but his targets have begun to dwindle in recent weeks as more outside receivers are emerging as threats.
Over the last three games, Ertz has seen just 10 total targets, accounting for just 5% of the team’s target share in the last two weeks. Things won’t get any easier in this matchup against Atlanta.
The Falcons are 10th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends, and that is due in large part to linebacker Kaden Elliss, who has the seventh-best coverage grade against tight ends, per PFF.
This all points to another quiet night from Ertz despite the Commanders likely having more success through the air in this matchup.
Brian Robinson Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts (+104)
We talked about the potential for a trailing game script, opening up more receiving opportunities for Drake London.
The flip side of that game script will lead to more carries for the Commanders' lead back, Brian Robinson.
Robinson has commanded 46% of the Commanders' rushing attempts since Austin Ekeler went down from an injury three weeks ago.
We have seen Robinson get at least 16 carries in two of those three weeks, and he should be leaned on if Commanders are leading late.
