Chiefs vs. Giants Odds and Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Giants +10.5 (if Giants WRs play) |
| Chiefs WR DeMarcus Robinson Over 14.5 Rec Yards |
Giants +10.5*
Chris Raybon: I have this game projected at Chiefs -8.5, so I lean toward the Giants, if wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney play as reportedly expected.
This is a big number to cover, and the Chiefs are just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) as favorites this season and 3-11 ATS as favorites over their past 14 games dating back to last season.
Shepard and Toney dramatically increase the chances of the Giants being able to get a backdoor cover, even if the Chiefs correct their turnover issues and build a three-score lead (which will be easier said than done).
I would bet this to +9. If Toney and/or Shepard sits, though, I would look to play the under — read my full preview of this matchup here for the explanation.
DeMarcus Robinson Over 14.5 Rec Yards
Michael Arinze: According to FiveThirtyEight's playoff projections, the 3-4 Chiefs still have a 45% chance of making the postseason. A win on Monday night would go a long way to getting their season back on track.
While they've struggled, that hasn't been the case against the NFC East as they've defeated the Eagles and Washington Football Team by a combined 30 points.
Although Mahomes suffered a concussion late last week against Tennessee, he should benefit from an extra rest day. There's no question that the Chiefs were awful in the game, but the Titans are a team that can take advantage of some of the Chiefs' vulnerabilities — particularly when they have to defend against the run.
This week, I'd expect that we'll see better production out of the Chiefs' pass-happy offense. They'll take on a Giants defense with cluster injuries to Lorenzo Carter and Carter Coughlin at linebacker. Defensive back Nate Ebner has also been ruled out, so the combination of their absences could result in a big day through the air for the Chiefs. And DeMarcus Robinson is one pass-catcher who might be flying under the radar.
Robinson has seen his target share increase over the last two weeks, but he's coming off a game in which he had only one catch for seven yards. Twice this season, when he's failed to reach double digits in passing yardage, he logged at least 17 receiving yards in the next game.
With the Giants likely keying in on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, I foresee Robinson getting some opportunities to contribute to the offense. I like his chances to go over this number and would play it up to 16.5 yards.
