Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Giants vs. Steelers parlay for Monday Night Football this week.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Week 7, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 8 on DraftKings.
Giants vs. Steelers Same-Game Parlay
- Giants +6 (-112)
- Najee Harris Under 1.5 Receptions (+125)
- Malik Nabers 90+ Receiving Yards (+245)
Giants vs. Steelers Parlay Odds: +1100 (DraftKings) | $10 Bet Wins $110
I learned my lesson about fading our Luck Rankings last week, when I was on an island Monday. I'm not making that mistake again, which is one of the reasons I'm backing the Giants +6.
New York is the sixth-unluckiest team in the NFL coming into the week, while the Steelers have a positive luck score. Pittsburgh looked great last week in a 37-15 win over the Jets. That was the first game of the season with Russell Wilson under center, and he picked it up in the second half after a slow start.
He also faced clean pockets nearly the entire game, with just one sack by the Jets. The Giants won't be so accommodating, as they lead the league in both adjusted sack rate and total sacks. Pittsburgh has the worst matchup in the league this week in terms of combined sack rate allowed by the offense and forced by the defense.
On the Giants side, it's a roughly average matchup in terms of pressure rate, despite the Steelers' overall strong defense. Their bad games offensively have came against tough pass rushes, with the Vikings and Eagles ranking fifth and sixth in adjusted sack rate. Pittsburgh is at 18th.
This is the best value in our Props Tool, and also makes a ton of sense as part of this parlay.
While the Steelers could theoretically be throwing more in close (or negative) game scripts than with a big lead, that doesn't mean it will go to Najee Harris. Since Jaylen Warren returned to full health, Pittsburgh has shown a clear tendency to prefer Warren in passing situations.
Warren has six targets over the past two weeks while Harris has just three, with the latter falling short of 50% snap rates in both contests.
The ceiling in terms of targets for Harris is probably two, which is his high water mark in games Warren plays in their entirety. We're getting plus money that he either doesn't get there this week, or doesn't catch both of them, which is a solid bet in my eyes.
I'm always interested in buying low on players as they make their way back from an injury. That's Malik. Nabers this week, who had a fairly quiet four-catch, 41-yard performance last week.
That was his first game back after missing two weeks because of an injury. Prior to that, he averaged 96 yards per game, with double-digit targets in three of the four contests.
Missing that time could be especially disruptive for a rookie, as he needs to be in rhythm with his quarterback. That connection should be better this week.
While the Steelers aren't the ideal matchup, they're much easier to throw on (12th in DVOA against the pass) than run on (third). Feel free to adjust this number up or down according to your risk tolerance, but I like going with the 90+ as it brings us north of 10-1 odds for the parlay.
Giants vs. Steelers Parlay Odds: +1100 (DraftKings) | $10 Bet Wins $110
