We open the NFL Divisional Round with a Texans vs. Chiefs parlay from what will be a freezing Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon.
This matchup took place back in Week 16, and it ended as a 27-19 Chiefs win. Kansas City's starters haven't played meaningful snaps since Christmas, while the Texans are coming off an impressive win last week over the Chargers.
Our NFL parlay has a pick on the spread and total, as well as a touchdown scorer. Let's dive in.
Texans vs. Chiefs Parlay
Texans +8.5
This is a pure trends play, and there are plenty that indicate Houston is the right side to bet against the spread.
Here are the two that stand out.
- Since 2020, Mahomes is 15-27 (36%) ATS as a favorite of seven or more points. That’s the worst mark of any quarterback in the NFL.
- Home favorites in the divisional round are 34-46-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades. Divisional Round favorites with a win percentage of higher than 75% (the Chiefs) are also 18-32 ATS.
The Chiefs laid 3.5 points to the Texans back in Week 16, so 8.5 is a big step up against a team that just had Justin Herbert throw four interceptions.
Over 41.5
John LanFranca got into why he's betting the over in our expert best bets file here, and here's the most compelling point:
Before the Texans defense surrendered 27 and 31 points to the Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17, that unit faced only three other quarterbacks who ended up making the playoffs. In total, Houston's defense faced five playoff teams in the regular season and gave up 27 points. I believe that is the Chiefs' floor on Saturday afternoon.
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+210)
Xavier Worthy has gone from a gadget kind of player early in the season to a key offensive weapon entering the playoffs.
The Texans rank in the bottom three in the NFL in terms of touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, and Worthy found the end zone when they met back in Week 16. Our expert Gilles Gallant breaks down the play a little more here:
Worthy led Chiefs receivers this season with 17 red-zone targets; he also led the team with four receiving TDs inside the 10-yard line. When you factor in that he also had six red-zone carries and three rushing touchdowns, it’s hard not to get excited about his scoring potential.
The Texans play zone defense at a top-five rate and allow a lot of TDs to WRs; Worthy has five receiving TDs vs. zone defenses this season.
