The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs face off in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday, Jan. 18, with kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. The game will be broadcast live on ABC and ESPN.
These teams met four weeks ago, and the spread closed at Chiefs -3.5. Kansas City won by eight, and the line is ironically 8.5 entering Saturday. The total is 41.5 with freezing conditions on the docket for this matchup.
Our experts have picks in every market you'll want to bet for this matchup. check out our best bets for this big-time matchup below.
Texans vs. Chiefs Picks
Texans vs. Chiefs Prediction Against the Spread
By Brit Devine
The Chiefs have done little to show me all season that they should be favored by more than a touchdown against almost any team, let alone against a playoff team that won last week.
The Chiefs starters, for the most part, haven't played since Christmas, which is a long time to be out of action. If any team can be prepared for that, it's Kansas City, but it might just be too long of a layoff.
Kansas City does have health on its side coming into this game and are a different team than they were most of the season on offense. With the long layoff and the Texans defense coming off of a stellar performance last week against the Chargers, I think Houston should be able to keep this within a touchdown.
Texans vs. Chiefs Over/Under Pick
By John LanFranca
No quarterback in the NFL had to face more third-and-10s this season than C.J. Stroud. The Texans struggled badly on first and second downs for the most of the season, and it handcuffed their entire offense. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is conservative by nature, even with one of the most talented young signal callers at his disposal.
However, the adjustment Slowik has made is significant. Houston's offense tipped it's hand back in Week 16 against the Chiefs when they passed the ball on a season-high 71% of early downs. Then, last week against the Chargers, one of Stroud's best performances of the entire season, the Texans' dropback rate was 73% in the first half on early downs, before the game was well in hand.
Passing the ball on early downs more often assists the lengthening of the game. There is more potential for big plays, more clock stoppages and more total plays ran in the game. A few more incompletions per half or a turnover could add another possession per half for a Chiefs offense that's peaking right now.
Speaking of Kansas City peaking, the Chiefs under Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have averaged 33.3 points per game in the Divisional Round. With the return of Hollywood Brown to the lineup, the Chiefs are spreading teams out more, using 11 personnel (three receivers and one tight end and running back) on 55% and 63% of snaps in the two games Brown played. Previously, the Chiefs were in 11 personnel only 45% of plays for the first 15 weeks of the season.
The less often the Chiefs use two tight ends, it's more than likely means an uptick in passing attempts for the best playoff performer in NFL history: Mahomes.
Before the Texans defense surrendered 27 and 31 points to the Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17, they had previously only faced three other quarterbacks who ended up making the playoffs. In total, Houston's defense faced five playoff teams in the regular season and gave up 27 points per game in those five contests. I believe that is the Chiefs' floor on Saturday afternoon.
I'd play this over up to 43.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Props
By Charlie Wright
The last time Travis Kelce was held under 70 receiving yards in a postseason game was the 2019 Super Bowl.
History aside, this is a pretty low line for the leading receiver in one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league. Kelce had a "down" regular season but still posted 97 catches on 133 targets. He leads the current roster in target share, and the Chiefs ranked third in neutral pass rate this season.
Houston has a stingy pass defense but will be missing both starting safeties (Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre). It'll likely be DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy dealing with the Texans' stud cornerbacks while Kelce will get to operate against backup safeties and linebackers.
When these two teams matched up in Week 15, Kelce ran nearly 60% of his routes from inline. He was at 28.6% in all other games. Kelce didn't do a ton in that game, but he earned seven targets. He could threaten for double-digit looks given the setup.
Texans vs. Chiefs Touchdown Scorers
By Grant Neiffer
Even with the return of Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy has been the clear go-to option in the Chiefs' passing offense.
Worthy has had nine, 11, and 11 targets over his last three games, and between rushing attempts and targets, he's had 11 red-zone opportunities in that span to go along with a touchdown in each game. The Chiefs are scheming plays for him in the red zone, and in this tough matchup, we can expect some more trickery from head coach Andy Reid.
I have the true odds for Worthy scoring at around +180, making this a great bet.
