The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) and Denver Broncos (9-7) will close the regular season in NFL Week 18 at 4:25 p.m. EST from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for today's game.
The Broncos are 10.5-point favorites on the spread over the Broncos with the game total set at 40 (-110o / -110u). The Broncos are -575 favorites to win outright while the Chiefs are +425 to pull off the upset.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction
Spread
The Chiefs are resting a lot of their main guys — notably, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce — but there are still reasons to believe they can cover.
Thus, I'm backing the Chiefs on the spread — find my reasoning below.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total.
My Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -105 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | +410 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -115 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | -550 |
- Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Broncos -10.5 (-105 ), Chiefs +10.5 (-115)
- Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under: 40.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Chiefs vs. Broncos moneyline: Broncos -550, Chiefs +410
For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Preview
- 78% of bets and 63% of money on the spread are on the Chiefs.
- 77% of bets and 76% of money on the total are on the over.
- 36% of bets and 84% of money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Picks
Sportsbooks price in motivation for must-win teams late in the season — that's obvious based on this line.
If the Chiefs were playing their starters and were healthy, they’d be favored. So why the drastic move?
Patrick Mahomes is an elite quarterback, obviously, but he’s not even going to be in the top five of MVP voting. This isn’t the Mahomes of past years sitting out this game.
The other key Chiefs who will be missing are TE Travis Kelce, DT Chris Jones and perhaps CB Trent McDuffie. NFL rosters are only so deep, though, so I think Kansas City’s strength in the trenches still plays here. You can't discount the Chiefs' coaching staff either.
Also, those Chiefs players who will be active will no doubt want to clinch a 16-1 season. For as fraudulent as that record might be, it’s still a very impressive achievement over the course of a 17-game season.
Motivation shouldn’t be a problem. You think the guys playing for Kansas City won’t love the idea of knocking out a division rival in Week 18?
Carson Wentz is starting for the Chiefs, and say what you will, but he’s a top-five backup in the NFL. He even won a start last season in Week 18 against the 49ers, who were led by Sam Darnold, which might be a more impressive win in retrospect! Don't forget that Andy Reid tends to make every quarterback better.
Over the Chiefs’ last four games, they’re third in DVOA, ranking in the top five of both run and pass offenses with a top-five passing defense.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are down to 14th in DVOA over their last six games and are 13th on offense for both the run and pass. Of late, Denver has been pretty average.
Although they have gotten extra rest, the Broncos played a long overtime game last week against the Bengals. The Denver defense was on the field for 42 minutes and faced 84 plays, on which it allowed 499 yards.
In his career, Reid is 8-3 (73%) against the spread as an underdog of 7.5 or more points. He also has a 25.5% return on investment on moneyline bets as an underdog, making him the second-most-profitable such coach behind Mike Tomlin.
My Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Chiefs vs. Broncos Weather
