For the first time this season, we have a player with a negative rushing-yard total in an NFL game. It's "Mall Santa Awareness Day" in the NFL.
I have referred to Kirk Cousins as "Mall Santa" earlier this season because of his impressive lack of mobility. It's not like Cousins could move around well before he tore his Achilles last season. Now, his inability to move is even more pronounced.
As of 4 p.m. ET, bet365 and BetMGM have contrasting lines up for Cousins' rushing yard totals. While bet365 had Cousins' total at 0.5 rushing yards with the under at +165, BetMGM has gone to the next level. At 4:15, bet365 had moved the odds on the under down to +145.
BetMGM has Cousins' rushing yard total at -0.5 (negative zero point five, that's not a typo).
The crazy part? That's what I'm projecting, -0.5 rushing yards for Cousins tonight. That means getting Kirk Cousins Under 0.5 Rushing Yards at +165, or any plus number, is great.
The Falcons are 5.5-point favorites over the Raiders, so I'm expecting them to be in control of this game tonight. I'm already on Cousins' pass attempts under tonight, thinking the Falcons will attack an awful Raiders run defense with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
This season, the Falcons have only led by eight or more points on 4% of their snaps. They have played a lot of close games, so they haven't had the chance to implement a run-heavy offense.
Atlanta has run 38 plays with a lead of eight or more points this season. In those snaps, the Falcons are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, dropping back to pass on just 23.7% of snaps.
Even if the Falcons are forced into a more pass-heavy game script than I'm expecting, Cousins has zero scrambles on 317 dropbacks this season. Also, the Raiders are going to be without Maxx Crosby, so that's even less pressure that the Raiders will be able to apply to Cousins in the pocket.
For reference, Cousins has gone over 0.5 rushing yards twice in 13 games this season. He has registered negative rushing yards five times, three of which were Falcons wins.
To sum this all up, chances are that Cousins is not going to scramble tonight to register a positive run. If he gets any rush attempts, it’s more likely that he’s taking knees.
I'd call it a coin flip whether Cousins even gets negative rushing yards. That means if we can get an under at 0.5, especially at odds like +165, we should take it. We are getting +165 odds here on Cousins to do something he has done 11 times in 13 games.
This prop was at +165 earlier on Monday afternoon, but I'd still recommend it at +145.
Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (+165, bet365)
