The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) and Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) will face off in the NFL Black Friday game. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will be broadcast live on Prime Video.
The Chiefs are favored by 13 points with the game total set at 42.5 points scored. The Chiefs are -800 favorites to win outright, while the Raiders are +550 to pull off the upset.
Kansas City is coming off a narrow 30-27 win over the lowly Panthers as 10.5-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes had perhaps his best game of the season, going 27-for-37 for 269 yards and three touchdowns with 60 rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders lost their starting signal-caller in Gardner Minshew II for the season amid a 29-19 loss to the Broncos, their seventh straight defeat. Aidan O'Connell gets the start in place of the injured Minshew.
Let's get into my Black Friday Chiefs vs Raiders predictions and NFL picks.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
- Raiders vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -13
- Raiders vs. Chiefs over/under: 42.5 points scored
- Raiders vs. Chiefs moneyline: Chiefs -800, Raiders +550
- Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction: Raiders +13
MyRaiders vs. Chiefs best bet is on the underdog For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I'm backing the Raiders against the spread in this one.
I expect this game to look closer to their last battle in Week 8 — a game in which Kansas City won by a touchdown — than a blowout.
Moneyline
While I'm backing Las Vegas against the spread, I see no value on the moneyline on either side.
Over/Under
I'm also passing on the total in this matchup.
My Pick: Raiders +13
Raiders vs. Chiefs NFL Black Friday Preview
The Las Vegas Raiders head to Kansas City in a rematch of their Week 8 clash in which the Chiefs triumphed 27-20. That game was even closer than the scoreline suggested, with the Expected Score 24.2 to 23.1 in Kansas City's favor.
This game is a bit different, with the Raiders heading to Arrowhead Stadium with Aidan O'Connell likely to line up under center after missing the first contest with a broken thumb.
In that first game, Gardner Minshew was 24-of-30 for 209 yards passing and two touchdowns despite the Chiefs playing more zone coverage than they normally do.
It's possible the Chiefs adjust and go more man-heavy than that first matchup — and that would make sense since they typically play man coverage at a top-five rate.
If that's the case, O'Connell is in a great spot, as he's chewed up man coverage in his short career. Of his 12 passing TDs last year, O'Connell threw six against man coverage despite facing it on just 22.6% of his dropbacks.
This year, one of O'Connell's two touchdown passes came against man coverage, despite facing man on just 16-of-85 dropbacks.
This game is also a Luck Rankings matchup, with the Raiders the unlucky team as both the Luck Difference of 29 and the Luck Gap of 36% each trigger the luck criteria.
From Week 13 to the second-to-last week of the regular season, unlucky teams in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% are 25-4-1 (85%) against the spread. That includes a 15-1-0 record if that team is also on the road, as the Raiders are.
Notably, unlucky teams meeting this criteria are also 4-0 ATS when Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are the lucky team.
I'll back the trend and the plus matchup for O'Connell and bet on the Silver and Black on Black Friday.
My Pick: Raiders +13
Chiefs vs Raiders Betting Trends
NFL Weather
