Lions vs. 49ers Betting Trends | NFC Championship Stats
The Lions visit the 49ers looking to make their first Super Bowl appearance. They're one of only four teams to never reach The Big Game, but are on the precipice of doing so after a pair of emotional playoff victories. Meanwhile, the 49ers have gone virtually wire-to-wire as Super Bowl favorites.
There are several trends and stats worth knowing ahead of the NFC Championship Game. However, two stand out in particular. Here are the key stats to note ahead of Sunday championship game.
Brock Purdy Inconsistent With Bigger Expectations
Brock Purdy has been dominant straight up and against the spread when favored by 3.5 or less. However, it’s a totally different story when the 49ers are laying four points or more, which is imperative to know since they opened as 6.5-point favorites.
In fact, it’s a pretty stark difference.
Purdy is 7-1 against the spread as a 3.5 favorite or less or a ‘dog, compared to 7-8 ATS as a favorite of four or more. Additionally, nine of those 15 games in which the Niners laid four or more came against teams averaging at least 21 points per game. Purdy’s only 3-6 in those games, failing to cover by three points.
This trend greatly favors the Lions as they’re averaging 26.0 ppg in the regular season, which is well over the 21 ppg threshold.
Jared Goff Outdoors vs Indoors
Meanwhile, a lot’s been said about Jared Goff’s splits playing indoors compared to outside. Detroit’s 31-23 win over Tampa Bay increased his career record indoors to 36-17 ATS, including 26-9 since arriving joining the Lions. However, he’s only 34-35-2 outdoors. His performance is particularly drastic after the calendar flips to December. He’s 25-20-1 ATS from September through November, but 9-15-1 ATS in December and January.
On the other hand, the 49ers have traditionally thrived dealing with the elements at home late in the year. They’re 12-7 ATS over the last five seasons in December and January. However, they’ve struggled in this spot this year, going just 0-4.
