The Los Angeles Rams (7-6) and San Francisco 49ers (6-7) begin NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football tonight. Kickoff from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the game will be broadcast exclusively on Prime Video.
The 49ers are 3-point favorites despite their brutal injury situation. The over/under is set at 49 points scored.
San Francisco will be without LT Trent Williams, while DE Nick Bosa, RB Isaac Guerendo and LB Dre Greenlaw are all questionable. The 49ers beat the Bears last week with Brock Purdy throwing for 325 yards and the offense bouncing back impressively.
The Rams won a “Game of the Year” candidate last week over the Bills. Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams each scored 2 touchdowns, and Los Angeles is suddenly 1 game out of first place in the NFC West.
Let’s get into our NFL predictions and Rams vs. 49ers best bets tonight.
Rams vs. 49ers Predictions, Picks
- Against the Spread: Rams +3 (-115)
- Over/Under Pick: Over 49 (-110)
- Player Props: George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
- Spread: 49ers -3 (-105), Rams +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: 49 points scored (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: 49ers -155, Rams +130
Odds via bet365 as of Wednesday night.
Rams vs. 49ers Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
It's been a rough season on the injury front for the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey sat out the first 10 weeks of the year, only to be lost for the season shortly thereafter. Just at running back, they're without McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, and Jordan Mason.
Last week, we saw a solid performance from Isaac Guerendo — only for him to go down late in the game. He missed the first two practices of the week and should be considered on the wrong side of questionable for Week 15.
They also lost wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk for the season, and this week could be without key members of both lines. Neither star left tackle Trent Williams nor top edge rusher Nick Bosa were able to practice Monday or Tuesday.
Despite all this — and their 1-3 record the past four weeks — they're somehow still favored over the red-hot Rams. Los Angeles has had the opposite injury situation, getting close to full health late in the season.
I suspect this line will move toward the Rams if both Bosa and Williams are ruled out, and potentially if either one is. For that reason, try to jump on the key number of 3 while you can. I'd still take the Rams if both linemen end up playing — but in those instances, I want +3.5. That seems somewhat likely, given that some books have juiced the 49ers -3 to -120 on Wednesday.
Pick: Rams -3 (-115; Bet to -120)
Rams vs. 49ers Over/Under Prediction
This isn't the spot to fade these two offenses. Since Week 10, games involving the Rams have averaged 57 points per game. The 49ers offense bounced back in a big way against the Bears last week to the tune of 450 yards of offense, a 7.4 yards-per-play average and six red-zone trips.
San Francisco brings momentum into a near must-win game against a defense ranking 30th in points per drive allowed this season. According to Sharp Football analysis, 44% of all possessions against the Rams defense have resulted in either a touchdown or a red-zone opportunity, the highest rate in the league.
As we have seen in recent years, when the Rams' offensive stars are healthy, this is one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. Since Week 8, Los Angeles ranks third league-wide in expected points added (EPA). Prior to Week 8, their EPA ranking was in the bottom half of the league.
The 49ers defense without Nick Bosa in the lineup simply isn't the same, as their pressure rate as a unit drops significantly. I will not overreact to one good performance against a struggling Bears offense. This is still a defense that has faced five top-10 offenses according to DVOA; San Francisco surrendered 24 or more points against every one of those teams. In those five contests, the 49ers gave up an average of 30.4 points per game.
Given how the Rams have been playing on both sides of the ball, I am happy to play this over below the key number of 51. Since October of 2022, these teams have met five times, with the 49ers averaging 25.8 points per game against the Rams. Another 24- or 31-point performance should be in order for a team that needs to win to save their season.
Pick: Over 49 (-110)
Rams vs. 49ers Player Prop
I've been targeting Jauan Jennings frequently this season, but he's finally priced somewhat fairly this week. I'm shifting my attention to George Kittle, and the case is similar. Kittle has seen a hefty target share and gets a nice boost without Christian McCaffrey.
The running back target share stat I mentioned in the Jennings write-up last week held true in Week 14. San Francisco had a 15.3% RB target share through Week 9, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. With McCaffrey healthy from Weeks 10-13, it spiked to 23.8%, the second-highest in the league over that stretch. Last week against Chicago, the 49ers had just three running back targets. Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor unsurprising don't draw the same attention as McCaffrey in the passing game.
Kittle posted a 14.5% target share with McCaffrey healthy this season. With McCaffrey sidelined, he's at 22.7%. Kittle led the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards prior to McCaffrey's return from IR. He got right back to it in Week 14, hanging 151 receiving yards on the Bears. Kittle and Jennings lapped the rest of the 49ers in targets and receptions last week.
The Rams are an exploitable pass defense. They're mediocre against tight ends, but they've been generous to receivers aligned inline. The Rams have allowed the fifth-most receptions, the fourth-highest catch rate, and the sixth-most yards per route run to inline receivers. Kittle spends time in the slot and out wide, but he runs the majority of his routes from an inline alignment (53.5%).
Pick: George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (-105)
