Six weeks into the 2019 NFL season there are two undefeated teams. New England has started the season 6-0, while San Francisco has won its first five games.
We have a long way to go until Super Bowl 54 in Miami, but the possibility of Tom Brady vs. Jimmy G is intriguing. How likely is the GOAT to face his former backup in the championship game?
We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule, and the most likely Super Bowl matchup heading into Week 7 is Patriots vs. 49ers.
Odds as of Wednesday at 9:30.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
According to our model, there is a 14.3% chance we get a master-vs.-apprentice showdown. A lot can change between now and February, but knowing New England and San Francisco are the most likely Super Bowl participants creates a betting opportunity for savvy gamblers.
By comparing our model to the betting odds, we have found two conference bets worth making before Week 7 kicks off.
New England Patriots to win AFC
- Current odds: -118, Implied Probability: 54.1%
- Patriots win AFC 59.8% of the time
Do I really need to explain why the Patriots are a good bet to win the AFC? Tom Brady. Bill Belichick. A defense that is allowing 8.0 points per game. It isn’t fair.
Not to mention a 6-0 start and an easy schedule all but guarantees the team a playoff spot. Plus, the Chiefs losing their past two games gives New England the inside track for the top seed in the conference.
Oddsmakers make Brady & Co. the odds-on favorites to win the AFC. Our simulations agree, though we are even more bullish on the Patriots. Instead of being -118 favorites, we would make New England -150.
San Francisco 49ers to win NFC
- Current odds: +600, Implied Probability: 14.3%
- 49ers win NFC 23.7% of the time
One would think the 49ers' hot start would be attributed to Jimmy Garoppolo and the team’s strong run game, but it has been the dominant defense that has made the difference. The Niners are No. 2 in defensive DVOA. San Francisco is second in yards allowed per play, net yards per pass and points per game allowed.
The team is pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 34% of plays — second in the league to the Bears. Pressure leads to sacks and the team has already recorded 17. The added pressure has also helped generate seven interceptions, and the 49ers are fourth in the league in total takeaways with 12.
Haters will say the team’s stellar statistics are a product of a weak schedule. However, Sunday’s beatdown of the Rams should quiet the naysayers. San Francisco held L.A. to 165 yards of total offense, an average of 3.3 yards per play and a combined 0-for-13 on third and fourth downs.
As the old saying goes, defense win championships. The 49ers have a legit unit on that side of the ball, making them a good bet at +600 to win the NFC.
