Simon Hunter already revealed his first bet of the week, and he and Chad Millman came back with two more on the Tuesday episode of "The Favorites."
After having time to break down all four NFL Divisional Round matchups, the duo revealed two more picks that they're aligned on. They're taking the points in one NFC matchup and betting the favorite in the other.
Let's break it down.
Commanders +10 vs. Lions
From the looks of it, this game has the makings of a classic shootout, with both teams ready to light up the scoreboard. That's the kind of matchup that can take down the Detroit Lions. We saw it late in the season against the Bills at home.
The total is set at 55, which may seem high, but it feels right the more you dig into the matchup. The Lions have proven they can tango in high-scoring affairs, especially highlighted by their recent barnburner against Josh Allen.
Jayden Daniels is something special. He's a different kind of rookie quarterback who has shown impressive poise and delivered in clutch moments. In his playoff debut, he went on the road as an underdog and won. His command in the 2-minute drill against Tampa Bay was very impressive and gave me confidence he can do something similar here against the Lions.
How high am I on Daniels? I've been peeking at the Commanders moneyline here, which is around +400. My preference, though, will be to take the points.
Daniels' remarkable ability to orchestrate plays and maintain composure could very well be the difference here. The Lions defense is banged up and allowed the Packers, Bills and 49ers to score 31 or more points late in the season. That game against the Bills specifically revealed some significant holes in this Detroit defense.
Last week, Washington converted on 60% of fourth downs, which feels sustainable. The Commanders' season-long 80% rate also might be due for some regression. For now, though, Daniels keeps coming up big. It's tough to bet against this kid.
To me, this is a disrespectful line to Washington. We saw a Commanders +10 pop up on Tuesday at ESPN BET, which very enticing.
Eagles -6 vs. Rams
The Sam Darnold we thought we were going to see all season finally showed up in the Vikings' last two games of the season. Because of that, I'm not ready to crown the Rams defense as it heads into a matchup against an Eagles team that buried it during the regular season. Perhaps I'm underrating Los Angeles defensively, but I'm chalking that impressive performance in the Wild Card Round up to Darnold. He was holding onto the ball for too long, indecisive in the pocket and overall uncomfortable.
The Eagles are a different beast, though, and the Rams face a tough road to next Sunday.
Los Angeles had to fly home after a "home game" against the Vikings, and now it will have to travel across the country to Philadelphia in freezing conditions on a short week. That's not an ideal spot for the Rams since Matthew Stafford isn't the same quarterback he was years ago.
The first matchup was not a close game in any way. The Rams scored a late touchdown to make the scoreline a little more respectable, but it was a 37-14 game at the 2-minute warning.
Saquon Barkley ran wild against Los Angeles in that game, and I think we see something similar this week. The Rams have struggled against teams that can dominate on the ground this season, so I don't think we're going to need to see Jalen Hurts throw the ball 30 times here.
The Eagles need to lean on their strength with the run game, and it feels like this will be another 25-10 or 24-10 type of win.
