Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Especially when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the Quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 9-6 for +4.2U so far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank someone like Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings as he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five of six games when he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on him to throw an interception in Week 2.
Although there was significant hype surrounding Justin Fields entering this season, even as a potential NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate, he isn’t winning this award any time soon because of his throwing inability.
Fields had another rough week in the air against the Packers in Week 1, when he threw an interception and went 3-of-13 on third downs. He was -130 to throw that INT at kickoff, and he's +105 one week later? Sportsbooks are daring us to bet it again, and I’m happy to take the bait.
The Bucs faced the Vikings and Week 1 and made life miserable for Kirk Cousins, who attempted 44 passes because Minnesota couldn’t establish the run on Tampa’s tough defensive line.
Now, we get plus odds on Fields, who owns the highest interception-per-game rate since coming into the NFL and is yet to close with a plus number for an INT in his career. This likely won’t end well — for him, at least.
The last time Fields played on the road in Tampa Bay, it went horribly. He threw three interceptions and never looked comfortable. That was almost two years ago. The reason why we want to keep betting this is because Fields doesn’t look to have progressed at all with his accuracy and reads in the pocket.
It pains me to make this pick as a Cowboys fan, but this is not an ideal matchup for Dak Prescott to avoid turning the ball over.
The Jets defensive line has an intense ability to cause pressure in the backfield while having sound coverage in the secondary. This is a recipe for turnovers.
If you’ve been following the Cowboys at all over the last 12 months, you’re likely aware that Prescott had a huge issue with interceptions last season. He finished with 15 INTs in 12 games and was the most-profitable QB for INT props. He also threw interceptions in five of the seven home games he played last season.
Although they are two different quarterbacks, it can’t be overlooked what the Jets did to Bills QB Josh Allen in Week 1. Not only did they force Allen to throw three interceptions, but he was also sacked five times in the loss. The Cowboys offensive line should be able to keep the sack count reduced, but that constant pressure by the Jets could bring out the gunslinger in Prescott that will make him try to force something down the field.
Also, reliable WR Brandin Cooks is likely out for this game, which leaves Prescott without a key weapon in the passing game.
