Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures — especially when it's a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
For the 2023 NFL season, I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props for each quarterback, and what I've found is that it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 31-27 for +9.2U so far.
This is coming off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) after throwing a pick in five of the six games he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on throw an interception in Week 5:
When a quarterback is hobbled, we as bettors have to try and exploit that — that’s why I’m betting Joe Burrow to throw an interception against the Cardinals.
The Bengals passing game is a mess. There’s no other way to put it.
Burrow is only completing 57% of his passes with his average completion at 4.8 yards per catch — both are career lows. On the road, he’s likely going to need to push the ball downfield, something that could be tough without Tee Higgins, who's questionable with a rib injury.
With the Cardinals potentially able to focus most of their defensive attention on Ja’Marr Chase, that should enable them to jump a route and force a pick.
The Cardinals, for all their roster flaws, have been feisty on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve forced opposing quarterbacks to throw an interception in three of four games and have 12 sacks — both are top-10 marks. The Cards almost made it 4-for-4 on picks, but they dropped a potential INT against Brock Purdy.
The sacks are important because since the start of the 2021 season, Burrow is the most-sacked QB (100 times in 36 games). Pair that with 26 interceptions in 38 regular-season games in that span and the +165 odds start to get real spicy.
A classic AFC North battle — these matchups typically yield turnovers on both sides.
There’s been an average of 1.6 turnovers per game between the Steelers and Ravens since the start of the 2020 season (six games). With the Steelers in desperation mode and in a bounce-back spot, I’m targeting Lamar Jackson to throw an interception in Week 5.
Jackson has been fairly clean overall in the pocket in 2023. He’s only thrown one interception (Week 1 vs. Texans) and has been extremely accurate. His completion percentage is at a career high through four games (74.3%). However, that isn’t built to last, especially when facing the Steelers pass defense that is all about getting pressure and forcing turnovers.
The Steelers have been gobbled up by quality QB play this season, but the fact remains that they still have a top-10 pressure rate in the NFL. They rank in the top 10 in total interceptions and total sacks. This is the recipe for causing turnovers on a Ravens team that has already allowed 11 sacks through four games (seventh worst).
In what is likely to be a super close game that comes down to a handful of plays, I expect Jackson to turn it over in a key moment.
Besides, what’s more shocking to you? That Jackson has only played the Steelers (as a starter) three times in his career? Or that he threw an INT in each of those games (six total)?
If you say both, fire away!
