Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into Week 4. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here are the quarterback interception props I like for Week 4.
Aaron Rodgers
To Throw Interception (+135)
Look, I just bet on Aaron Rodgers to win NFL MVP at +1600 after his Week 3 showing vs. the Patriots. I’m drinking the kool-aid and respecting the Jets offense. But this is still too high of odds for an interception prop for Rodgers against an underrated defense.
Rodgers only has one interception this season (Week 1 vs. 49ers), and while he can usually negate the blitz, the Broncos might be a different animal in 2024. They currently are fifth in the NFL in sacks, first in the NFL in blitz rate (46.9%), and third in pressure rate against quarterbacks (30.9%). They’ve also got an INT off QBs Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, who both had plus-odds to throw a pick when they took on the Broncos.
Then you look at the Jets offensive line and it’s a bit leaky. LT Tyron Smith is allowing pressure on 9.2% of dropbacks (career worst) and starting RT Morgan Moses may miss Week 4 with a knee injury. If the Broncos are getting pressure, that means Rodgers will need to make quicker decisions, which will likely lead to tipped passes or miscommunication — the perfect recipe for an INT bet.
Jared Goff
To Throw Interception (+100)
The second-most profitable QB INT prop going through three weeks (+2.17U), Lions QB Jared Goff is always on my radar when he’s plus-money — especially when he’s facing an opponent that creates a lot of pressure. Last season, when he threw for 12 interceptions, nine of those were caused by the opponent’s defensive pressure. This season, it’s been more of the same with five interceptions through three games, two of which came from a team that creates a ton of pressure through the blitz, like the Bucs, and picked him off twice.
Now, the Lions host the Seattle Seahawks, who lead the NFL in pressure rate per dropback (36.9%) through three weeks. The main reason why the Seahawks didn’t pick off QB Skylar Thompson or QB Jacoby Brissett is those quarterbacks only combined to throw 47 passes and their aDOT per pass ranks amongst the lowest in the league. Goff will at least try to push the ball downfield, but because the Seahawks only blitz at 19.2% of the time (ranked 25th in NFL), the Seattle secondary should be able to sit back and pounce on errant throws.
Factor in the Lions will be without starting center Frank Ragnow to call out those protections and help alleviate the incoming pressure, so Goff could then be caught off-guard and have a ball tipped in the air. It’s also worth noting the Seahawks have come to Detroit in each of the last two seasons and got Goff to throw a pick in the second half each time.
