Like last week, rather than try to force a bet on specific games, we'll be focusing on some key spots for live bets in NFL Week 6. Some games do give us a very obvious play if the game goes one way, but nothing stands out in the other direction.
With five weeks of data behind us, I've also switched my model over entirely to 2022 stats, although there are a few notable exceptions for teams that haven't had much action either up or down by more than a score. Those will be noted where applicable.
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
Here's how we're live betting NFL Week 6 Sunday Night Football, plus the live bets we made earlier in the day.
The Sunday Night Football Live Betting Scenario to Watch For
Cowboys-Eagles: Unders With Philadelphia In Front
The undefeated Eagles lead the league in first half scoring, while ranking 29th in the second half. That's largely due to the commanding leads they've held deep into games allowing them to control the ball and play slow.
On the Dallas side, they're 18th in the first half, and 26th in the second. That may be more of a statistical anomaly than anything, but it's still an encouraging sign for our scenario.
Both teams play slower in the second half, with the Eagles having a noticeable gap and it being fairly close for Dallas — which is why the bigger edge lies when the Eagles are in control of the game.
This scenario also puts both teams on the inefficient side of their offensive DVOAs. Dallas ranks ninth in rushing DVOA, but 17th passing. Philadelphia ranks slightly higher rushing as well, but they're strong in both categories. With passing being generally more efficient, a run-focused attack should produce less scoring.
This game shows some value on second half unders regardless of game script, so I'm not opposed to playing it that way regardless. It's much stronger with the Eagles in control, though. Of course, the ideal scenario is a total that's jumped up from the pregame 42, but anything in the 40s would suffice if Philadelphia is running away with it.
The Live Bets We Made Earlier on NFL Week 6 Sunday
The Scenario: Steelers-Buccaneers: Second Half Overs
After a brief divergence last week — where the Steelers game showed value on 1H overs — we were back to the normal schedule with Pittsburgh.
Regardless of quarterback, the Steelers have played considerably faster in the second half over the past few seasons, which hasn't changed in 2022. We expected the second half on Sunday to play much faster than the first regardless of game script, with the best-case scenario also being the likeliest: Tampa Bay up by seven or more points.
Pittsburgh would want to run the ball as long as they can, but a Bucs lead would force them to switch gears.
While the closeness of the game gives me a tiny bit of pause, the line was too good to pass up — down to 40 (-109) at BetRivers at the half. This fit our pregame read of a low scoring first half, followed by more action in the second.
What we didn't necessarily expect was for Pittsburgh to beat Tom Brady & Co. outright in a game that tallied just 38 total points.
The Scenario: Jaguars-Colts: Overs if Indianapolis Leads, Unders if Jacksonville Does
With a tight spread heading in, it wouldn't have been a shock to see either team out in front in this game. And if either team got up by seven or more, our models projected value either way.
With Jacksonville trailing, this game would have played considerably faster. The Jags are willing to open up the offense when playing from behind, playing at the league's quickest pace when trailing by seven or more.
On the flip side, the Colts don't pick things up much when playing from behind, while the Jaguars are happy to play ball control with a lead. Jacksonville takes more than six seconds off their overall pace when leading by at least seven, while the Colts only pick things up by about a second — a scenario for live unders.
With Jacksonville taking a 14-3 lead on a big run early, the total rose all the way to 45.5 on DraftKings (-110). This fit exactly what we were looking for heading into the game, so we took the under.
Forty-four ([) points later, we had our first 0-2 start on live betting so far this entire NFL season. Here's hoping Sunday Night Football gets us in the win column after a solid Thursday earlier in Week 6.
