Our Luck Rankings are in for NFL Week 18 — the final week of the 2022-23 regular season.
The unlucky teams from Action Network's Luck Rankings are 121-98-4 (55.2%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That includes a 59-44-1 (57.2%) mark when teams differ by at least 10 places since we started tracking in Week 3. That improves to 39-22-0 (63.9%) ATS when teams differ by at least 16 places.
If a bettor placed a bet on the unlucky team from every game in which teams differ by at least 10 places in our Luck Rankings, that would produce a 9.3% return on investment (ROI). The ROI jumps to an eye-popping 22.1% for games in which the teams differ by at least 16 places.
In addition, we're adding in Luck Ranking totals, which compares how teams have actually scored relative to expected score. Our Luck Ranking totals are 20-7 since Week 12 when two opposing teams in combination have scored at least five points, more or less, than expected per game.
Since Week 18 is full of uncertainty, we're just going to list the Luck Ranking games instead of providing a breakdown of a few select matchups.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 18 Luck Matchups
10-15 Luck Differential
- Browns (27) at Steelers (17)
- Patriots (16) at Bills (6)
- Saints (26) vs. Panthers (15)
- Rams (25) at Seahawks (11)
16+ Luck Differential
- Broncos (31) vs. Chargers (14)
- Cardinals (28) at 49ers (9)
- Raiders (23) vs. Chiefs (3)
- Bears (30) vs. Vikings (2)
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 18 Luck Totals
Luck Total Unders
- Raiders vs. Chiefs (-8.9 expected vs. actual)
Luck Total Overs
- Colts vs. Texans (10.5)
- Broncos vs. Chargers (6.3)
