Seahawks vs. Jaguars Odds
| Seahawks Odds | -4 |
| Jaguars Odds | +4 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
The Seattle Seahawks have yet to win a game since Russell Wilson was sidelined with an injury on his throwing hand. At 2-5, they're currently tied for the second-worst record in the NFC.
While it might look like all hope is lost for the postseason, FiveThirtyEight still gives Seattle a 17% chance to make the playoffs. Those odds will undoubtedly improve with a win in Week 8 against the lowly Jaguars.
What's interesting is that this total has been bet up from 43.5 to 45 at some sportsbooks. The Seahawks have also been bet up as high as -4 after opening as a three-point favorite. Yet, Geno Smith's passing yards projection is still available at 218.5.
These things tend to be correlated, so I'd like to make a case for Smith to go over his passing yards prop on Sunday.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jaguars vs. Seahawks Injury Report
Jaguars Injuries
- DT Jay Tufele (hand): Out
- CB Tyson Campbell (toe): Questionable
- DT DaVon Hamilton (shoulder): Questionable
Seahawks Injuries
- FS Marquise Blair (knee): Out
- T Duane Brown (illness): Questionable
- RB Alex Collins (groin): Questionable
- G Damien Lewis (shoulder): Questionable
Jaguars vs. Seahawks Matchup
| Jaguars Offense | DVOA Rank | Seahawks Defense |
| 24 | Total | 21 |
| 28 | Pass | 25 |
| 2 | Rush | 11 |
| Jaguars Defense | DVOA Rank | Seahawks Offense |
| 32 | Total | 7 |
| 32 | Pass | 7 |
| 20 | Rush | 3 |
| Football Outsiders' DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team's success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent. | ||
|---|---|---|
Jaguars Have Been Gashed Through the Air
One way to analyze this game would be to use what we know about the betting activity on the total thus far. With some money coming in on the over, I can't see Jacksonville winning or covering the spread in a low-scoring game. As a result, I think that further strengthens our case for Smith to go over his passing yardage prop, and here's why.
With the total increasing by about 1.5 points, that could shift how we'd divide up the points between both teams. Would the added points benefit the Jaguars or the Seahawks? If Seattle dominates Jacksonville, then it could mean a big day for Smith in passing yards. And if the Jaguars are better than expected, the Seahawks will abandon the run even more and opt to throw the ball down the field.
Since we're banking on Smith going over his passing yards prop, let's dig into the Jaguars' numbers defensively. They're last in both total DVOA and also pass DVOA. If we look at the raw numbers, they're 31st in allowing 297.8 passing yards per game. Moreover, opposing quarterbacks are having some of their best games against the Jaguars. Their opponent passer rating (111.2) is the second-worst in the league.
Receivers are also having fun getting behind their defense. Per Sharp Football Stats, Jacksonville is giving up the highest explosive pass rate (15%) this season. That could be good news for a Seattle offense ranked sixth with an explosive pass rate of 11%.
Geno Smith & Seahawks Passing Should Soar
Last week, the Seahawks played in less than optimal conditions against the Saints. A bomb cyclone on the West Coast brought rain and heavy winds to the region. The conditions were indeed difficult for both quarterbacks and receivers, and that's a big reason why Smith only completed 12 of his 22 passes for 167 yards.
Seattle also struggled to keep its drives alive in those conditions as it went 3-of-12 on third down. Those numbers should be much better this week against a Jacksonville defense that, over its last three games, is ranked 27th in allowing opponents to convert 51.35% of their third-down opportunities.
In Week 6 against another good defensive team in the Steelers, Smith threw the ball 32 times against a solid Pittsburgh defense. As a result, I don't think his 22 pass attempts last week have to do with Seattle having any reservations on letting him loose. The situation didn't call for it. Thus, it's a bit unfair to judge him based on last week's performance given the conditions.
Smith has thrown just one interception in his three appearances this season, so I believe he's earned the trust of his coaching staff. Note that the last three teams he's faced are ranked in the top 10 in defensive DVOA. He should face far less resistance this week against the Jaguars.
Lastly, the weather report should also work in his favor this time around. The temperature in Seattle should be about 56 degrees with clear skies and wind speeds of no more than five mph.
Seahawks vs. Jaguars Picks
There's always a chance that bookmakers neglect to adjust their props after a line move. In many ways, props can be thought of as derivatives for the more traditional betting options. At times it can be a fun exercise to think about how the line movement can affect other aspects of the game.
As far as the point spread is concerned, I agree with the move because I'm not sure I'm ready to lay four points with Smith as a favorite. In comparison, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has looked much better over his last three games, and he's thrown only one interception during that span compared to seven in his first three games. If Lawrence continues to progress, the Seahawks could be in for an even bigger fight than they might've expected initially.
Based on all the elements I've discussed, there's enough to suggest that Smith could have a decent passing game against the worst pass defense in the league. SugarHouse lists Smith's passing yards at 218.5, and I believe the over is worth taking in this spot.
Pick: Geno Smith Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114) at SugarHouse | Bet to: 222.5
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