Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL SGP for Chiefs vs. Raiders on Black Friday.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Friday Football parlay for Week 13 on BetMGM.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Parlay — Black Friday SGP
- Raiders +13 (-115)
- Kareem Hunt Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
- Brock Bowers 100+ Receiving Yards (+425)
Chiefs vs. Raiders Parlay Odds: +900 | $10 Bet Wins $90
Raiders +13 (-110)
Despite their 10-1 overall record, the Chiefs are just 4-6-1 against the spread this season. They've consistently been in close games, with the market overreacting to their overall record and making spreads bigger than they should be.
They're taking on the Raiders on Friday, a 2-9 team with a similar record against the spread. Las Vegas lost starting quarterback Gardner Minshew for the season with a broken collar bone, but it's probably not a significant downgrade to Aidan O'Connell.
O'Connell also suffered an injury last week, but appears ready to play in Week 13. Even if that's not the case, Desmond Ridder also isn't all that much of a downgrade.
More importantly, this game has the largest differential in our Luck Rankings this week, as the Chiefs have been the NFL's luckiest team. That might not translate to an outright loss for Kansas City, but it should be enough to keep the game within two touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
The main reason I'm building this parlay on BetMGM this week is due to the availability of this prop on Hunt. They're the only book offering it, as other places are wary of the return of Isaiah Pacheco for the Chiefs.
Pacheco got full practices in on both Tuesday and Wednesday and is set to make his return from IR. The last time he was active for the Chiefs, he handled 34 carries across two games.
That obviously will cut heavily into Hunt's workload. Our NFL Props tool has him projected for just 42 yards, making this a huge edge.
Brock Bowers 100+ Receiving Yards (+425)
If the Raiders do keep it close this week, it's probably through their rookie tight end Brock Bowers. From Week 6 on he's had a 24% target share, second only to Try McBride among tight ends.
With Aidan O'Connell projected for 36 pass attempts, that means Bowers should see roughly nine targets, with an upside for more. He's hit double digits in every game O'Connel has appeared in this season.
The Chiefs have allowed the highest yardage to tight ends in the NFL on the season at 70.2 per game, which furthers the projection on Bowers. You could certainly opt for his regular yardage mark of 58.5 or his 75+ alternate total, but I'm taking the big swing on Bowers picking up his second 100+ yard game in the last three weeks.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Parlay Odds: +900 | $10 Bet Wins $90
