What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen, and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Lions and 49ers.
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Lions vs. 49ers Monday Night Football Parlay
- 49ers Third Quarter Spread +1.5
- Ricky Pearsall Anytime Touchdown
- Isaac Guerendo Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +1300 (FanDuel)
49ers Third Quarter Spread +1.5
Nick Giffen: I'm assuming Detroit will start with the ball. Kyle Shanahan has deferred when winning the coin toss 100% of the time as 49ers head coach. Dan Campbell has received around 20% of the time, and this could be one of those times in an attempt to grab an early lead and rest his starters.
San Francisco is the unlucky team in this matchup, and this is the fourth-largest luck gap of Week 17, so getting the 49ers +1.5 in the third quarter when they're likely to receive the first possession is nice.
You could bet this +0.5, too, but I prefer the 1.5 just in case of a scenario where the third quarter features two 49ers field goals and one Lions touchdown.
Ricky Pearsall Anytime Touchdown
Gilles Gallant: Ricky Pearsall has seen 73% of snaps, and his targets are picking up with four in each of the past two games.
Detroit plays man coverage at the top rate in the NFL, and I expect Brock Purdy to look his way with Jauan Jennings and George Kittle garnering so much attention.
With the Lions typically starting fast, it could put the Niners in a trailing game script, forcing Purdy to pass more.
I expect the coaching staff to draw up more looks for Pearsall to see what they have in their rookie first-round pick before the season ends.
Isaac Guerendo Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Sean Koerner: Isaac Guerendo was removed from the injury report after dealing with foot and hamstring issues, so he should see his usual workhorse role, which he's had for the last two games.
Guerendo is an athletic freak, one of only five running backs since 2003 to get a perfect score at the combine. Chris Johnson and Saquon Barkley were two of those backs.
Guerendo has been running inside/outside at a near-even rate in his two games as a workhorse, and those inside runs are where he will thrive against the Lions.
The Detroit defense has allowed a league-high 15% explosive run rate on inside runs, allowing a league-high 2.38 yards before contact on those runs.
Allowing Guerendo to get 2+ yards before contact has been a recipe for disaster for opposing defenses. He has averaged 10.7 yards per attempt on such runs this season.
I love Guerendo's upside tonight, especially with the potential for the Lions to rest starters at some point.
