Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, and other forms of gambling all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have NFL parlay picks for the NFC Championship game featuring the Commanders at Eagles at FanDuel.
NFL Parlay Picks: Commanders vs. Eagles
- Commanders +6.5 (-120)
- Austin Ekeler Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
- Saquon Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards (+196)
- Saquon Barkley Under 2.5 Total Receptions (-196)
Full NFC Championship SGP Odds: +1811 | $10 Bet Wins $181.10
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. The complex correlations among the legs make fair odds nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit twice during the regular season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
So, here's what I'm targeting for my NFC Championship SGP.
Commanders +6.5
I'm worried about the health of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who's been spotted walking with a limp this week as he deals with an injury to his left knee.
While the Eagles can certainly put up points without relying on Hurts' mobility, this is a particularly difficult matchup to have his speed limited. Washington was a top-10 team in adjusted sack rate this season and should be able to bring some pressure.
Will that be enough for Washington to win the game outright? I'm not sure.
Keeping it within six points is a much shorter order, though, and FanDuel has now moved slightly off market with their 6.5-point line, making this even more attainable.
Austin Ekeler Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
This is another prop that FanDuel is a bit off on when compared to most of the market, with other books listing a 19.5 line for Ekeler's' rushing total. While a single yard isn't a huge difference, we always want to get the best number possible.
More importantly, Washington likes having Ekeler on the field for his pass protection and receiving ability, which tends to spill over into a handful of carries per game. He had a roughly 50/50 snap share with nominal starter Brian Robinson in the razor-close 23-20 win over the Bucs during Wild Card weekend, though Robinson pulled ahead a bit in the more comfortable win over the Lions.
Negative game scripts favor Ekeler, though, making him likely to see a heavier workload with Washington as a 6.5-point underdog. Plus, he's been fairly efficient during the playoffs, turning 14 carries into 74 yards across two games.
Saquon Barkley 150+ Rushing Yards
Barkley's base prop this week ranged from 125.5 to 127.5 yards depending on the sportsbook — and it's quite possibly still too low.
The 2,000-yard rusher already has 334 yards on the ground in two playoff games, both of which came against tougher rushing defenses (by DVOA) than the Commanders. Against these same Commanders in the regular season, Barkley had rushing totals of 146 and 150.
While I'd be more comfortable with a 140-yard alternate line here, FanDuel only offers 25-yard increments in this market. Still, with a guaranteed week off next week (one way or the other) and the high stakes of this game, it wouldn't be shocking to see a higher-than-average workload for the star running back — especially if the Eagles avoid designed runs for Hurts, which could be the case given his knee issue.
Saquon Barkley Under 2.5 Total Receptions
I wasn't going to include this one due to the long odds, even though it's projected as the best edge in our props tool.
However, including it in the parlay increases the odds from +1076 to +1860, which is fairly generous for a bet that should (in a vacuum) hit two-thirds of the time.
The Eagles don't use Barkley a ton in the passing game, and he's cleared this mark just five times in 18 total games, including the playoffs. They should also use him less in the passing game if they're loading him up with carries, which is what we're hoping for already based on our other Barkley pick.
Since it nearly doubles our payout, it's worth including as a relatively low-risk option.
Full NFC Championship SGP Odds: +1811 | $10 Bet Wins $181.10
