As always, be sure to join our Action Discord as that’s where I’m discussing what I’m looking for/timing for my official plays that I will post in the Action App.
Tonight, most of my bets are going to come live in-game after a solid start to the day betting the earlier games live. It'll be especially important to follow along as you can.
Sean Koerner's NFL Picks
We have 13 games tonight, so follow along as best you can. Here's who to expect under center for every team.
Bills vs. Steelers
Cardinals vs. Colts
Koerner's Pick: Colts +1.5 1H -140 (FanDuel)
Neither team is expected to play their starters, with the Colts likely starting Sam Ehlinger, who could play most of the first half. Desmond Ridder is expected to start for the Cardinals and also play a significant portion of the first half.
Ehlinger has consistently performed well in the preseason, which gives the Colts an edge in the first half. With the possibility of a first-half tie at around 8-10%, I like the value in getting a +1.5 spread since it ensures a win even if the half ends in a tie.
FanDuel is offering +1.5 at -140 and DraftKings is offering +0.5 -130. I prefer paying the extra 10 cents of juice to potentially cash this if the Cards win the half 7-6, but I'd still like it at +0.5 priced at -130.
However, I expect the edge to shift to the Cardinals in the second half with Clayton Tune under center, while the Colts will rely on Kedon Slovis and a wide receiver recently converted to quarterback, Jason Bean.
Seahawks vs. Titans
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Jets vs. Panthers
Koerner's Pick: Jets 1H +0.5 -125 (DraftKings)
Jack Plummer was predictably a disaster in his NFL debut last week, playing for most of the game. Assuming Carolina rests its starters again tonight, Plummer should start and play at least the first half.
The Jets are likely to give Tyrod Taylor a series or two before turning the offense over to Andrew Peasley, who showed much more promise in his Week 1 performance than Plummer.
I believe the Jets have a slight edge in this game, especially in the first half. Getting +0.5 at -125 on the Jets feels like a steal, particularly in what should be a low-scoring half, with a 10-12% chance of ending in a tie.
The Jets are worth considering again in the second half if they’re getting points.
Rams vs. Chargers
Pick: Under 33.5 -112 (DraftKings)
The first half will likely be a battle between Stetson Bennett and Easton Stick, who had a disastrous Week 1. With his job as the Chargers' backup QB on the line, I expect him to bounce back somewhat. However, the Chargers' offensive line was a disaster last week and should struggle against the Rams' second unit.
It gets even worse in the second half. Bennett and Dresser Winn will likely face off against Max Duggan and Luis Perez. Perez might actually be the best quarterback in the game, but he’ll probably only see mop-up duty in the fourth quarter.
Not only is this one of the weakest QB charts you'll see for a game, but both defenses also played well last week. This sets up for a downright ugly game in terms of scoring. I think it makes sense to lock in the full-game total rather than targeting any specific half or in-game point.
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
Pick: Over 37 -110 (DraftKings)
This game is shaping up to be a higher-scoring Week 2 preseason matchup, with neither team expected to play their starters. We’ll see quarterback battles on both sides, as all four QBs compete for backup roles.
In the first half, we’re likely to see C.J. Beathard vs. Kyle Trask. They're low-end No. 2-caliber QBs who have typically performed well in preseason. The second half should feature John Wolford against Mac Jones. Wolford looked sharp last week, and Jones was extremely good, reaffirming his status as a high-end backup and potentially a below-average starter.
Given the QB matchups, I like the potential for consistent scoring throughout the game, especially with no third-string QBs expected to play.
Cowboys vs. Raiders
