NFL bettors are a spiteful bunch.
If a team has been profitable for bettors through the first couple of weeks of the season, don't be surprised to see the masses backing it for a third time.
On the other hand, the teams that have already burned bettors twice to start the season are unlikely to get much support in Week 3.
This thought process can often lead NFL bettors down a path of taking bad numbers in Week 3, however, savvy players can actually use it to their advantage by being willing to get down on teams that have struggled against the spread (ATS) through the first two weeks of the season.
Let me explain.
NFL Picks for Week 3
Per the Action Network's Bet Labs software, NFL teams that start the season 0-2 against the spread are good bets in Week 3.
Blindly betting teams that fit this criteria has produced a 62-48-1 (56.4%) ATS win rate since 2005, and yet we can still make this system better.
By looking at only underdogs in this scenario, our ATS record jumps to 54-39-1 (58.1%), which makes sense as teams getting points are more likely to be undervalued by recreational bettors.
As a bettor, it's tough to convince yourself to ride with NFL teams that have yet to cover a spread in Week 3, but that's exactly why they've been profitable over the past 17 seasons.
Here's a look at the five teams that match this betting system for Sunday's NFL Week 3 games:
- Colts (+5.5) vs. Chiefs
- Patriots (+3) vs. Ravens
- Titans (+2) vs. Raiders
- Panthers (+2.5) vs. Saints
- Broncos (+1.5) vs. 49ers
