Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you're able to get the bets in as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Predictions: Week 8 Bets
NFL Pick: Colts vs. Texans
The Texans beat the Colts in Week 1 by just two points as 2.5-point favorites, so there's no reason for this line to move this far.
The Texans haven't swept a season series since 2016 and have only won four of the last 13 matchups against their division rivals.
I continue to be underwhelmed by this team, not only when they're against the spread, but they posted less than 200 yards yesterday against Green Bay. The Colts, this season, are 5-2 ATS, while the Texans are 1-6. It's clear that the loss of Nico Collins has hurt this offense, and this week that could especially be the case. In his last three games against the Colts, Collins has 22 receptions for 458 yards.
Colts' defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will always make opponents grind and earn it, which poses even more problems against Houston's poor early-down offense.
The line is just too high above a key for me, as the Colts have covered 6.5 in all seven games this season. Additionally, 6-6.5 road dogs are 133-101-6 against the spread (57%) in the last 15 years.
Even though the Colts could tie the divisional lead with a win, I'm skipping the moneyline here, and I'm also putting in a +700 divisional winner bet for the Colts on BetRivers.
Pick: Colts +6.5
NFL Pick: Cardinals vs. Dolphins
It's incredibly hard to make a team playing this poorly greater-than-a-field-goal favorites against anyone.
Miami has scored 70 points in six games — which adds up to 11.7 points per game. Since 2016, favorites that have scored 16 or less in three straight games are 36% ATS.
Neither defense has been very good, both ranking in the bottom 10 in DVOA entering the week. The Cardinals offense is the one unit we know is fairly solid, so I like the chances to hang at home against the Chargers on Monday.
The Dolphins' quarterback situation is in shambles. Skyler Thompson is hurt, Tyler Huntley left the game yesterday, and who knows what's going on with Tua Tagovailoa? If he comes back, we maybe we'll get to fade a rusty player who's returning from injury in an offense entirely predicated on timing and feel. Or maybe we'll just get Tim Boyle.
Grab above the key now, and then we can see how we feel about this game later in the week.
Pick: Cardinals +3.5
