NFL Week 6 wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football game between the Bills and Jets. Let's jump into my favorite Monday Night Football pick, where I'm looking to fade one of the home team's pass catchers.
I was on the over on Mike Williams' longest reception prop back in Week 4, and he's actually gone over this total in four straight games. But this is the perfect spot to look in the other direction and fade him.
The Bills play zone at a top-10 rate (75% of the time) and Williams' targets per route run drop to just 9% against zone coverage. In fact, he has just seven targets against zone defense all year.
The Jets' passing game should attack the slot, where they'll match up with Cam Lewis, who has been a disaster, or Taron Johnson, who is questionable and coming off of a multi-week injury to his forearm. Williams only drifts into the slow on about 17% of his snaps.
When Williams is targeted downfield, there's wind in play, and the Bills rank second in defensive DVOA on deep passes, including fifth in deep passes to the left, and No. 1 on passes to the right.
Buffalo doesn't generate a ton of pressure, ranking just 21st in pressure rate, and that lines up favorably for a Jets offensive line that has been strong thus far. Aaron Rodgers' aDOT is just 6.7 yards with a clean pocket, which he should have quite often.
I also expect the Jets to give Buffalo fits with their defensive pressure and keep this game close, leading to a pretty neutral game script, instead of having Rodgers throw a ton.
Pick: Mike Williams Longest Reception Under 16.5 Yards (+100)
