There are two Monday Night Football games tonight to wrap up NFL Week 3 with Jaguars vs. Bills and Commanders vs. Bengals. My best bets center around one of the quarterbacks in each game, so let's get right into it.
Through two weeks, Trevor Lawrence is only averaging 13 completions per year after averaging 20.5 over the last two seasons.
A lot of that has to do with the fact that Lawrence's completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is -10.5% right now, where as over the last two seasons the averaged around -0.5%. As you can see, there's room for some positive regression in his completion rate.
Lawrence's average depth of target (aDOT) is right around 11 yards as well, which is up from the 7.5-8 range he's shown in his career. Thus, we should start seeing him throw shorter passes, which would in turn improve his completion percentage. Aiding that is the fact that the Bills allowed a bottom-10 aDOT (top 10 in shortness) in both Weeks 1 and 2.
Another reason to expect positive regression is the fact that the Jaguars' pass rate over expectation (PROE) has been -5.6% this year, where as the last two years under Doug Pedersen they averaged 1.3%. They should also just naturally throw more based off how this offense has operated under offensive coordinator Press Taylor.
Buffalo allowed run-heavy Arizona and Kyler Murray to complete 21 completions in Week 1, and Miami quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson combed for 25 in Week 2. Lawrence also had 25 completions against the Bills in their meeting last year.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Over 20.5 Completions (-114)
The Bengals are a Luck Rankings play this week and they're favored to win. Given that they're most likely to win and cover, it's easy to project a rushing game script for Cincinnati tonight.
Through the first two weeks of the season, Cincinnati's PROE is 9.4%, after sitting at 5.6% last year, so there's also room for regression in the play calling to see more run plays.
I would expect that regression to happen tonight for two main reasons: the uncertainty of the health to Joe Burrow's wrist, and the fact that the NFL is seeing more rush-heavy schemes so far this season overall.
I'd rather take Burrow's attempts than completions here, however, because Washington is ranked 32nd early on against short passes, and Burrow has massive short/long efficiency splits — he's very good on short passes and very bad on long passes.
We actually want Burrow to rack up the completions early on tonight, play efficiently, and give Cincinnati an early lead to protect, which will obviously limit his attempts later in the game. Completions also help take more time off the clock.
Speaking of the clock, the Commanders are an incredibly run-heavy team, as 52% of their plays this season have been runs, thanks in part to Jayden Daniels' need and ability to scramble.
