For the second time in as many weeks, we have two Monday Night Football games. That means I have two NFL player props.
We're getting back to basics and what we do best for tonight's matchups, which means we're betting a pair of unders.
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Titans-Dolphins Player Prop
Will Levis Under 198.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The Titans are 0-3 and have lost every game by seven or more points, and a big reason is that quarterback Will Levis tends to make boneheaded plays at the worst possible time. That's why the titans tend to take the ball out of his hands and lean on the rushing attack when the game is close. In a matchup that sees Tennessee installed as a 2.5-point underdog, we could see it focus on establishing the run for most of the game if it can keep it close or play with a lead.
The situation the Titans tend to pass at a much higher rate (over 10% higher than the league average) is on second and long. So, if we can get a three-yard run on first down, it would significantly increase the chance of them running the ball again on second down, which would be great for this prop.
Considering the Dolphins defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the run, I think we'll see Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears have success out of the Titans backfield tonight to take pressure off of Levis. Also, Dolphins linebacker David Long is out. He's an excellent run defender but brutal in coverage. His replacement, Anthony Walker, is typically better in coverage but not as good of a run defender, which helps Tennessee's run game.
One of the best plays that can happen when rooting for a passing-yards under is a long defensive pass interference call. We are rooting for the QBs team to advance the ball as much as possible (early on) without needing too many passing yards. A defensive PI is the best of both worlds because it can advance the ball without needing any offense.
Well, Cleke Blakeman’s crew will be officiating this game and he has by far the most defensive pass interference penalty yards in the NFL over last three seasons, averaging about 20 per game. A crew that's more likely to throw a flag on a 50-50 ball downfield can only help this prop.
Now, Levis has had a few costly turnovers that have led the Titans to start 0-3. There's obviously a chance he can make another costly one early and gets them into another pass-heavy game script. However, there is a chance that we see him get replaced by Mason Rudolph if that happens. I think Levis still has a fairly long leash but think the odds of an in-game benching might be around 5% tonight. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's a potential factor and good safety net.
We also should also see a very run-heavy, slow-paced, clock-killing offense from Miami tonight with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, which should also lower the overall play volume for the Titans.
I’m projecting Levis' median closer to 185.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 196.5 with a handful of underlying factors that could help this bet hit.
Seahawks-Lions Player Prop
Kenneth Walker Under 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Lions had one of the best run defenses last season. Christian McCaffrey was the only RB to rush for 70 or more yards against them last season, and that was in the playoffs.
Detroit then added D.J. Reader, one of the premier run stuffers in the league, in free agency. The Lions have yet to allow a RB to rush for more than 23 yards since he made his debut in Week 2 and are allowing three yards a run with Reader on the field.
This is an absolutely brutal spot for Walker to make his return from an oblique injury that forced him to miss Weeks 2 and 3. I consider Zack Charbonnet to be one of the best backup RBs in the league, and he did great filling in. I think this could be more of an even split today if the Seahakws decide to ease Walker back into action.
I'm projecting Walker's median closer to 45.5 yards and a 60% chance to stay under, but all signs point to fading him in this market tonight.
