I'm in on two NFL player props for Packers vs. Lions tonight on Thursday Night Football.
I'm betting two unders on each side of the ball for Green Bay. This is a brutal matchup for Tucker Kraft, who has thrived this season in the Packers passing game, and I'm also betting an under on Xavier McKinney, who has been a revelation in the secondary.
Let's get right to it.
Packers vs. Lions Player Prop Picks
The Lions have held opposing tight ends in check all season and have only allowed two tight ends to clear 40 yards this season.
Detroit ranks second in DVOA against tight ends, and a big reason is that it plays man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. Like most tight ends, Tucker Kraft has seen a big dip in yards per route run against man coverage, nearly a full yard lower than when he faces zone.
The Lions have also blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL since Aidan Hutchinson got hurt. Kraft tends to get short passes where he racks up a ton of yards after the catch, but he's only averaged 5.6 yards per catch against the blitz when the defense plays man coverage, which the Lions do most of the time. It will be harder for Kraft than usual to get open and have room to run against a defense like this.
I'm projecting Kraft for closer to 32.5 yrads with around a 60% chance to stay under 39.5. I'd bet this down to about 34.5.
Xavier McKinney has only cleared this line in two of 12 games this season despite having a favorable schedule for a safety to rack up tackles. He's cleared this in two of the last four games because he's had what is pretty much the best possible slate of games to do so for a safety.
The Lions have provided the third-most tackle opportunities for opposing safeties this season, so McKinney should see a boost. His tackle totals have been a bit less sensitive to the opponent, though, so I'd think he gets less of a boost than most other safeties would.
In these teams' Week 9 matchup, McKinney played deep at a higher rate than usual and only finished with five tackles. The Lions are missing a handful of defenders who have been solid in slowing down the run this season, so the Packers may be able to lean more run-heavy here than they did in that first meeting, as well as more run-heavy than most teams that face the Lions.
If Green Bay is able to focus on establishing the run, it could lower the Lions' overall time of possession and play volume, which would directly impact this prop.
I'm projecting McKinney for closer to 5.8 in this market with a fair price of -175 to stay under 6.5. I'm more than willing to take on the juice here and would play it to about -155.
