NFL Player Props Divisional Round: Dawson Knox, More
TE Dawson Knox
Under 1.5 Receptions (-120)
Last week for the Wild Card Round, I gave out Knox’s receiving yards under on three shows, and the line dropped a full yard every time. That’s how confident I was with my median projection of 10.5 for him.
I had also mentioned how he was due for some regression in terms of catch rate. Sure enough, he finished with nine yards, including a dropped pass. I’m projecting his median closer to 10.5 again this week for all of the same reasons, specifically here because the Chiefs could be a tougher matchup.
Knox runs flats/outs for 50% of his routes. The Chiefs have allowed a 6.4 yards-per-attempt rate to those two routes against opposing TEs this season, which is the second-lowest rate in the NFL.
Knox's yardage total dropped three yards on Saturday morning, so I'm pivoting to his receptions prop. I'm projecting him with a 60% chance to stay under 1.5 receptions against the Chiefs.
WR Josh Reynolds
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Reynolds has been heating up recently. His playing time has gone way up, and he’s run a route on 94% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks in the Lions' last two games. That has been due to either Jameson Williams or Kalif Raymond being out, and Raymond is out today. That means Reynolds should be on the field for almost every passing play against the Buccaneers. He also has seen seven targets in back-to-back games.
This week brings Reynolds a positive matchup, as well. The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-highest yards-per-attempt average to WRs this season, and they blitz at a top-three rate. I expect Tampa Bay to dial it up often against Goff. When Goff is facing a blitz, Reynolds' target rate goes up 2%.
Finally, the Buccaneers use Cover 3 at a top-four rate in the NFL. Reynolds' yards-per-catch average goes up 10 yards against Cover 3.
I’m projecting Reynolds' median closer to 47.5 yards with a 61% chance that he clears 39.5.
WR Christian Watson
Under 2.5 Receptions (-125)
Watson returned to action last week after a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury. He only ran a route on 40% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. I think his playing time will certainly go up against the 49ers, but by how much is the question.
I have a hard time seeing the Packers taking away snaps from Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs, so Watson’s increase in playing time would have to come from Dontayvion Wicks, who is playing extremely well and is one of the underrated WRs in the NFL. Bo Melton has also been a pleasant surprise recently, and he could still have a minor role.
I’m thinking Watson will be out there for about 60% of the pass plays as more of a downfield threat for Love. He has an average depth of target of 16.4 this season and has only caught 53% of his targets. The 49ers allow a 40% completion rate rate on pass attempts of 15 or more yards downfield, which is the seventh lowest in NFL.
I want absolutely nothing to do with fading Watson's yards prop, so this is the way to go. I’m projecting him closer to two receptions with a 65% chance to stay under 2.5.
WR Jauan Jennings
Under 1.5 Receptions (-120)
Jennings always faces an uphill battle in this market since he has to compete with Christian McCaffery, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle for targets, and he has to do so while seeing limited playing time.
Jennings is usually only on the field in three-receiver sets, which the 49ers use at the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Therefore, Jennings usually needs either Samuel or Aiyuk to miss a game to clear this prop.
Jennings has cleared this in three of four games this season when either Samule or Aiyuk missed a game but when both WRs are healthy (like tonight), he’s stayed under in six of nine games (67%).
Also, Ray-Ray McCloud just returned from the injured reserve and will be active today. When he’s been active this year, he’s checked in for Jennings on a few pass plays every game In five games with Samuel, Aiyuk and McCloud all active, Jennings has stayed under 1.5 receptions four times (80%).
I'm projecting Jennings to stay under 1.5 receptions about 61% of the time.
RB Devin Singletary
Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (-136)
Since Week 14, Singletary has completely taken over the Texans' backfield and is operating as a true workhorse back. He’s seen 69% of their rush attempts over that stretch, which is right around where I have him projected for this game.
Singletary's averaged 17 carries per game over this six-game sample and has only cleared this number twice. It’s a stretch where the Texans went 4-2 and had a handful of positive game scripts that allowed Singletary to be closer to his ceiling in this market.
However, in the Divisional Round, the Texans are 9.5-point road 'dogs to a legit Super Bowl contender in the Ravens, so there will likely be fewer rushing attempts to go around.
Most teams become more pass heavy when trailing, but the Texans see their pass rate go up even more when playing from behind. They are right around league average in pass rate when the game is within one score; they have the eighth-highest pass rate when trailing.
The Texans have gotten this far because of C.J. Stroud, not Singletary. I think Houston will ride or die with Stroud’s arm and lean on him even more.
I’m projecting Singletary closer to 14.5 rush attempts with a 70% chance he stays under 16.5. He has a 62% chance to stay under 15.5, which I obviously also like if you can't get 16.5.
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TE Brevin Jordan
Under 1.5 Receptions (-110)
The Texans are 9.5 point road dogs, so this is a game where they'll likely going to be in a trailing, pass-heavy game script. However, Brevin Jordan tends to get less playing time, targets when the Texans are trailing. He has a 6% target share when the Texans are tied or leading but just 3% when trailing.
Also, more than half of Jordan’s routes are curls or outs (54%). The Ravens have been very good on those specific routes to opposing TEs, allowing the third0lowest expected catch rate. That’s an area where Jordan is due for regression considering he’s caught 85% of his targets on the season. I'd expect that to be closer to 78% going forward.
I'm projecting him closer to a 61% chance to stay under 1.5 receptions.
