I'm have three spread bets for Sunday of NFL Week 16, with predictions and picks for Titans vs. Colts, 49ers vs. Dolphins and Bills vs. Patriots.
So, let's get right into my expert picks and analysis. I have NFL predictions for my favorite spread picks of NFL Week 16.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL picks!
NFL Predictions, Picks for Week 16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Titans vs. Colts Spread Prediction
Before getting into whatever it is the Colts have got going on, the key thing to know about this spot is this: With both the Titans' straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records sitting at a ghastly 2-12 (14.3%), it marks just the 77th time since 2003 that a road underdog enters a matchup with a winning percentage of 25% or less both SU and ATS – and if you had bet each of the first 76 instances, you would be 49-24-3 (67.1%), according to our Action Labs data, returning a smooth 29% on investment.
On average, the 'dog beats the closing line by 3.2 points, meaning these spots have provided a free field goal of value just for going against public perception.
Still, I would never recommend blindly betting a trend unless the matchup checks out, and there was only one very specific starting quarterback scenario that was ever going to make this spot bettable: Will Levis not starting for the Titans and Anthony Richardson continuing to start for the Colts.
Yet, here we are.
At the minimum, Mason Rudolph’s insertion for Levis replaces a passer who threw five pick-sixes in 11 starts and threw an interception on 4.2% of his 284 attempts with one who has yet to throw a pick-six in 16 career starts and has an interception rate of 2.6% on 612 career attempts.
The defenses are about equal – Tennessee is 14th in defensive DVOA, Indianapolis 16th – but Levis’ pick-sixes dragged the offense down to 31st, which should now improve based on their advanced metrics from this season, albeit on a smaller sample size for Rudolph (176 dropbacks) than Levis (343).
- DVOA: Rudolph -8.2% (26th of 40), Levis -37.4% (39th)
- EPA/DB: Rudolph -0.03 (33rd), Levis -0.11 (38th)
- Success Rate: Rudolph 48.1% (26th), Levis 37.4% (39th)
Meanwhile, the Colts rank 22nd in offensive DVOA, but that’s skewed, with Joe Flacco accounting for 40% of their dropbacks this season.
At one point, Richardson and Flacco were comparable (which is why they went back to him), but things have devolved to the point where Richardson has the Colts in Levis territory:
- DVOA: -24.7% (36th)
- Success Rate: 35.6% (40th)
- EPA/DB: -0.06 EPA/DB (35th)
While lacking the propensity for Levis’ signature pick-sixes, Richardson is amazingly the only qualified passer who has a higher interception rate (4.3%) than Levis (4.2%) this season.
Circling back to public perception: the Colts have four more wins than the Titans, but they are about as unimpressive as you can get. Flacco beat the Justin Fields-led Steelers by three (outgained 404-358) in relief and the Levis-led Titans by three.
Richardson beat the Bears by five (outgained 395-306, Bears goal-line choke), the Tyler Huntley-Tim Boyle Dolphins by six (outgained 337-284, Dolphins multiple red-zone chokes), and the down-bad version of the Jets and the always down-bad Patriots by the slimmest of margins (one point each) that both required improbable rushing TDs at the buzzer.
For those counting at home, only two of their six wins would have covered the -3.5.
Pick: Titans +3.5 (-105)
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49ers vs. Dolphins Pick Against the Spread
This line keeps oscillating between a pick 'em and either side being a short favorite, almost as if the market is saying, “Who knows?”
It’s understandable, given the uncertainty surrounding this matchup due to the sheer number of injuries and general struggles as of late.
The 49ers’ struggles are more top of mind because they’ve had twice as many primetime games as Miami over the past three weeks, and the DeVondre Campbell situation made headlines, so there’s likely more negative 49ers sentiment in the market because they are the only side that has a few identifiable edges amid the uncertainty.
While both offenses are major question marks, the 49ers clearly have the better defense.
Both defenses played well last week, and both are getting healthier, but despite missed time from the likes of Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Chevarious Ward, the 49ers are sixth in DVOA on the year while the Dolphins are 19th.
San Francisco is as healthy as it's been all year on defense, and with the offense laying an egg last Thursday night, it’s easy to ignore that the defense allowed 12 points on four field goals. Two of the 49ers' best three games in defensive EPA have been their last two.
The 49ers' defensive health – particularly as it pertains to linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw – makes them the league’s toughest matchup for opposing tight ends. That is not good news for a Dolphins squad that has had to rely on tight end Jonnu Smith as its de facto No. 1 receiver with Tyreek Hill’s effectiveness waning and, now, Jaylen Waddle (doubtful — knee) being out.
The 49ers are 6-8, but we know they could easily be 10-4 if not for fluky blown second-half leads against the Rams (twice), Cardinals and Seahawks.
We also know the narrative on the Dolphins: They can’t win in the cold (irrelevant here) … and can’t beat good teams. Even if their 6-8 record is taken at face value, the 49ers profile as a team the Dolphins struggle with.
Five of the Dolphins' six wins this season have come against teams that have won no more than four games, and they are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against teams that have won six or more games this season.
According to our Action Labs data, since Mike McDaniel took over, the Dolphins are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in Tua Tagovailoa’s starts against teams with a SU winning percentage under 40%, covering by 7.06 points per game.
Against opponents with a SU winning percentage of 40% or better, the Dolphins are just 7-13 (35.0%) ATS with Tagovailoa starting, failing to cover by 5.97 points per game.
Pick: 49ers -1 (-110)
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Patriots vs. Bills Best Bets
The Patriots have still been struggling despite Drake Maye playing well, averaging 19.6 points in his starts. The Bills have scored 30-plus in eight straight games, averaging 35.0 points per game over that span.
At home, the Bills' average margin of victory is 17.3 points compared to 3.9 on the road. Meanwhile, the Patriots' average margin of defeat is three points worse.
In terms of net EPA per play, the Bills are +0.21 and the Patriots are -0.13. Even if you regressed those marks halfway toward the mean, the Bills would still project to win by roughly 17 points.
The Patriots play one of the heaviest rates of man coverage, and Josh Allen is second in the NFL in total EPA versus man (81.30), torching single coverage for a 21:4 TD:INT ratio.
And while the Patriots continue to deal with injuries in the secondary and along the offensive line, the Bills had the entire roster take part in Friday’s practice and ruled out zero players due to injury.
This is the first meeting between these two coaching staffs, which decreases the likelihood of the divisional familiarity tightening the score.
Per our Action Labs data, the Bills are 61% ATS when favored by more than seven points at home, with Josh Allen at QB covering by 5.3 points per game.
Pick: Bills -14 (-110)
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