There's no better way to start the season than 3-0. For all the analytics and post-game win expectancy formulas out there, sports are painfully binary in the end — you either win or you lose, and that's that.
Only five NFL teams have managed to win all three of their games so far: the Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Vikings. It's not exactly the lineup anyone predicted! So are all five headed for the playoffs?
Since the 1970 merger, 75.5% of all teams that started 3-0 went on to make the postseason — 181 of the 241, per NBC Sports.
But since the league expanded to 32 teams, that number has dropped below 70% — and it's down to about two-in-three since 2013, with just 37-of-55 such teams hitting the playoffs. That's only 67.2% and while that's still pretty good, it also means that one in three of these unbeaten teams flying high right now may ultimately end up watching the postseason from home.
The postseason did expand to 14 teams in 2020-21, leaving a bit more margin for error for these 3-0 teams. Since then, 14-of-17 teams that started 3-0 made the playoffs (82.4%) — but 7-10 and 5-12 finishes, so even these teams aren't safe from disaster.
Even with that new smaller sample, history's math still suggests at least one of these 3-0 squads could still miss the playoffs, maybe two. So which one will it be?
Last week, we gave hope to some of those terrible 0-2 teams. Now it's time to dash some 3-0 dreams.
Let's rank the five unbeatens' playoff chances from safest to most vulnerable, complete with their betting odds to make or miss the playoffs.
NFL Predictions & Futures Picks
Note: Odds listed are the best available for each market between BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
- Make playoffs: -4000 at FanDuel (97.6% implied)
- Miss playoffs: +1800 at DraftKings (5.3%)
- Division odds: -650 at FanDuel (86.7%)
Perhaps you've heard of Patrick Mahomes?
Mahomes has been a starting quarterback six previous seasons and made six AFC Championship Games, so it's not like it makes a ton of sense to pretend he's gonna start missing the playoffs now, after a 3-0 start.
The truth is that Mahomes hasn't even played that great by his standard, and neither have the Chiefs. That makes it all the wilder that the team is 3-0 anyway, coming off what will likely be its toughest three-game stretch of the season against the Ravens, Bengals and Falcons.
If you want to make a case against Kansas City, you can get there easily enough. Those three opponents are a combined 2-7 and the Chiefs could easily have lost all three.
The problem is that they didn't. They won them, even with Travis Kelcetotally missing so far with Mahomes still finding his fastball, even with rookie LT Kinsgley Suamataia struggling mightily.
Even with all those things happening and a tough opening slate, the Chiefs are 3-0 anyway and have only trailed for 14% of their defensive snaps.
They're also playing in an awful division where the Broncos and Raiders already look DOA and the 2-1 Chargers have their best shot at Kansas City — a home game against the Chiefs — marred by injuries to virtually every key name on the roster this week.
Win Sunday, and Mahomes and the Chiefs will be 4-0 and coasting toward yet another division title. Barring a catastrophic injury to Mahomes, the Chiefs should be safe. And if they start rounding even more into form soon, it might be time to start talking about 17-0 instead.
Verdict: Pass
2. Buffalo Bills
- Make playoffs: -850 at FanDuel (89.5% implied)
- Miss playoffs: +540 at FanDuel (15.6%)
- Division odds: -140 at DraftKings (58.3%)
Well that was a butt whoopin'.
Buffalo demolished the Jaguars on Monday night and left few questions, and Josh Allen is the new front runner for MVP. The Bills have steamrolled Jacksonville and Miami in back-to-back primetime games and look about as good as any team in the NFL.
How does the competition stack up? Depends on if you're an optimist or a pessimist. Jacksonville is pretty good for an 0-3 team, but 0-3 nonetheless. Miami ranks last in DVOA and was missing its quarterback for much of the game. Arizona has the least-talented defense in the NFL and hung in the game for a half before Buffalo pulled away. Still, all of those teams could at least flirt with .500 and the Bills rolled anyway.
We've seen this from Buffalo in the past.
The Bills started 3-1 last season, with wins by 28, 34 and 28 — but then racked up injuries and stumbled all the way to 6-6 before recovering with a five-game winning streak to sneak into the playoffs. Two years before that, a 4-1 start saw an averaging winning margin of almost 29 PPG before the team collapsed to 7-6, then barely survived to make the postseason.
So what's happened? Injuries, mostly.
And that's the biggest concern for Buffalo. In fact, the injuries have already started to pile up on defense. Sean McDermott's unit isn't what it once was, transitioning from old to young, but the Bills seem to lose a key starter each week. Matt Milano is the biggest name missing and maybe the central piece of the entire defense.
None of the names seem to be missed too much just yet, but injuries have added up in the past, and Buffalo is always one Allen injury away from disaster. That's true of any team with a superstar quarterback, but Allen's style of play makes him much more prone to injury, even the type he guts out and plays through with much worse results.
It's about to get a LOT trickier for Buffalo.
The Bills hit the road for three straight games against the Ravens, Texans and Jets. They could easily lose any of those games, even all three. They still play the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailoa, presumably) before a late bye, then the 49ers, Lions and Jets after that.
It's an absolutely brutal schedule, and an Allen injury or defensive collapse at the wrong time could turn into a handful of losses in a hurry.
Even then, Buffalo has shown an ability to collapse and still recover and make the playoffs — and the division looks a bit more winnable with Miami missing its quarterback and the Jets still finding their way.
That schedule is daunting though, especially this Ravens-Texans-Jets road trip up next. Now is absolutely not the time to invest in Bills or Allen MVP futures. If you're playing at all, buy a Miss Playoffs ticket at +540 and expect that price to drop over the next few weeks. You can always pivot from there.
Buffalo still has plenty of work to do, though it should likely be dancing in the postseason again barring another slew of injuries.
Verdict: Nibble a Miss Playoffs ticket at +540 in case the injury bug strikes again, and you can always get back out later after this tough upcoming stretch. Now is not the time to buy Bills futures.
3. Seattle Seahawks
- Make playoffs: -130 at FanDuel (56.5% implied)
- Miss playoffs: +125 at BetRivers (44.4%)
- Division odds: +190 at FanDuel (34.5%)
The Seahawks are rolling. Seattle moved on from Pete Carroll and brought in a new coaching staff, and so far, the returns have been incredible.
Mike Macdonald looks every bit the part as the new head coach. He has the Seahawks doing the little things in key in-game moments, and he's already made his mark on a defense allowing just 14.3 points per game, yet to allow 21 in any game.
New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has been a marked improvement too. Grubb has made things so much easier for Geno Smith, quietly playing like a top-five quarterback so far, and he's hitting open receivers and dialing up the deep ball.
Perhaps just as impressively, this coaching staff has made terrific halftime adjustments on both sides of the ball — a trademark for Macdonald's Ravens defense last season that was so dominant.
That said, it's fair to say we don't know a whole lot about the Seahawks just yet.
Seattle's defense looks about as good as anyone's so far — the Seahawks ranked top five by DVOA on that end and second overall even before a 24-3 victory — but look at who the D has played thus far: rookie Bo Nix making his NFL debut, career journeyman Jacoby Brissett, and backups Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle against the Dolphins.
Miami has yet to lead a game this season, and that was barely a football game. The Patriots got a surprise Week 1 win over the Bengals that looks less impressive in hindsight given how Cincinnati has played since, and a home win over Denver is hardly exciting. The Seahawks have played well but proven little.
That changes this week with a Monday night trip to Detroit, the first big test for this new staff, and Seattle hosts the 49ers two weeks from Thursday. The Seahawks still play the Jets, Packers and Vikings too. There will be tests to come.
Still, Seattle does get credit for passing its initial exams, and the Seahawks are already two full games up over the rest of the division. And how you feel about Seattle's playoff chances may have as much to do with the division as anyone else.
San Francisco is badly banged up and struggling but still favored in the division. But Seattle looks leagues better than the Rams and Cardinals so far — especially defensively — and has four games left against those teams. Even 3-1 in those games gets Seattle to 6-1, and it's pretty tough to miss the playoffs from there.
I'm going the other way. I've been in on Seattle as much as any team heading into the season, and it's impressive how quickly this team has come together with entirely new schemes on offense and defense. I think the Seahawks are for real, and I think books still haven't caught on.
I bet Seattle to win the division at +800 before the season, then again at +340 last week. There's still value at +190 (FanDuel and DraftKings), an implied 35%. Books have the 49ers even odds to take the division even down two games, but FTN makes the Seahawks 58% to win the division.
If you're not ready to throw the Niners out, there's also value on Seattle to make the playoffs at -130 (FanDuel). That's an implied 57%, lower than FTN's division odds and far short of their odds for Seattle to make the postseason at 78%.
In fact, FTN currently has Seattle the most likely NFC team to win the Super Bowl. Those odds are too low too, if you really want to go nuts. If the Seahawks win in Detroit on Monday night, your window to buy in on Seattle may be gone for good.
Verdict: Bet the Seahawks to make the playoffs and/or win the division if you haven't yet — or add to your position even if you have. Books still haven't caught up to the Seahawks.
4. Minnesota Vikings
- Make playoffs: -180 at DraftKings (64.3% implied)
- Miss playoffs: +160 at FanDuel (38.5%)
- Division odds: +195 at FanDuel (33.9%)
The Vikings have been one of the delightful surprises over the first three weeks, led by a Cinderella comeback story thus far by Sam Darnold.
Darnold threw four touchdowns Sunday, and not just against anyone. He did it against DeMeco Ryans' Texans, a defense many had as a top-10 unit heading into the new season. And Darnold has done it even without T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison thus far, so Minnesota's offense should only get better as it gets healthier.
Minnesota might have the most impressive 3-0 start of the five teams, all things considered. Don't forget this team is effectively missing its starting QB too with J.J. McCarthy out for the year, and Brian Flores' defense has been as good as any in the league. And they've done it against real competition! The 49ers and Texans are potential Super Bowl contenders, and the Vikings dominated both of them.
It won't get any easier for Minnesota, though.
Up next is a trip to Green Bay, where Jordan Love seems likely to make his return, then a trip to London to face Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Minnesota will be underdogs in both games and could easily be 3-2 heading into the bye, with the Lions waiting after the week off. Of course, the Vikings also still get to play the rest of the AFC South, a trio of teams that are a combined 1-8.
Those are likely the softest games on the schedule, and that also means unleashing this aggressive Flores defense against young QBs Anthony Richardson, Will Levis and Trevor Lawrence — plus twice in the division against Caleb Williams.
Of course, Minnesota's QB isn't exactly proven just yet. Darnold looks good through three games but we have an entire career of data that says otherwise, and a Darnold fade to reality would be a pretty easy explanation for the Vikings missing the playoffs.
Minnesota is the only team in the NFL yet to trail for a single snap this season.
Is that good or bad? It's obviously great so far, but it also means this team is still somewhat untested. How does Sam Darnold look when the game script isn't in his favor and the defense knows he has to pass? How will that Flores defense look when it's playing on its heels instead of attacking from every angle? We just saw Sunday what a seemingly unbeatable Saints squad looked like when it suddenly was no longer playing with a big lead all game.
If you feel you have a good read on the Vikings-Packers game this weekend, your best angle may be playing your pick to win the division. Minnesota is +195 (FanDuel) and Green Bay is +340 (DraftKings), and FTN shows slightly value on both of them at those numbers — value that will be much higher with a win.
The fact that Minnesota hasn't played from behind, the way the defense collapsed late last season, and the Darnold of it all still leave this team something near a coin flip to make the playoffs even in the open NFC.
Even if you're not sure how you feel, buying a +160 ticket to miss the playoffs (FanDuel) right before these consecutive Packers, Jets, and Lions games seems like an easy buy-low-sell-high opportunity even if you choose to hedge out the other side a month from now.
Verdict: Grab a Vikings to miss the playoffs ticket at +160 with a tough upcoming schedule, and decide later if you want to hedge out or let it ride.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Make playoffs: -122 at FanDuel (55.0% implied)
- Miss playoffs: +110 at DraftKings (47.6%)
- Division odds: +260 at FanDuel (27.8%)
If the Vikings defense hasn't been the best in the NFL so far, it's because the Steelers unit has.
T.J. Watt and the Steel Curtain have been brilliant. Even in a league lacking scoring, Pittsburgh has allowed just 26 points in three games, with no opponent even yet to clear 10 points. Per NFL on CBS, the Steelers are the first team to do that in over 50 years, a remarkable accomplishment.
But just like with Seattle and Minnesota, it's worth considering who the Steelers have played thus far — and it hasn't exactly been a murderer's row.
First up was Kirk Cousins playing live football action for the first time since tearing his Achilles. Cousins, remember, didn't play in the preseason at all, and the team was tipping its play calls in shotgun and pistol. Next was rookie check-down maestro Bo Nix, followed this week by Justin Herbert, who was barely able to start and unable to finish, then backup Taylor Heinecke playing behind an offensive line missing both tackles.
You only get to play the teams in front of you, but suffice to say the Steelers have had this trio of games handed to them on a platter.
And all of that should make it pretty concerning that Pittsburgh has won by just eight, seven and 10 points in those games, scoring a total of just three touchdowns combined.
The offense is averaging just 17 points per game even with the stellar defensive performance. Pittsburgh failed to find the end zone against a poor Falcons defense, and the team is averaging under 300 yards of offense per game.
The offensive line has been worse than hoped and is missing key names, and the run game has been a letdown too, even under Arthur Smith. Justin Fields has made a handful of nice throws but hasn't exactly lit the world on fire — consider that the team is still treating Fields as a weekly start-sit decision while Russell Wilson rehabs his injury — and we have a lot of data that says he's not an NFL starter.
There are two great things the Steelers have going for them. First, they're up two games on the Ravens and Browns in the division and now three games on the woebegone 0-3 Bengals. The easiest way to make the playoffs is to beat the other three teams in your division, and it's hard to get a better start than that.
Second, Pittsburgh still has a bunch of winnable games coming up. The Steelers are road favorites in Indianapolis this week, and then they host a pair of Sunday night games against the Cowboys and Jets sandwiched between outings against the Raiders, Giants and Commanders.
Let's say Pittsburgh goes 1-1 in those night games, then drops one of the other four despite being favored in all of them. That gets the Steelers to 7-2, surely on the brink of the playoffs, right?
Not so fast. Pittsburgh has the toughest schedule in the entire NFL over the back half of the season, including all six division games — when the rest of the division probably isn't sucking anymore, like it is now. Check out the schedule from Week 11 forward: Baltimore, at Cleveland, at Cincinnati, Cleveland, at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, Kansas City and Cincinnati.
If you're counting at home, that's six games against what we all assumed was the best division in football, plus the Eagles and Chiefs. It's an absolutely brutal final eight games, one so rough that even at 7-2, Mike Tomlin's over-.500 streak could still be in jeopardy if things really go south. Pittsburgh will likely be underdogs in all but one of those final eight games, plus the Cowboys and Jets games, which means at least nine more times this season.
The Steelers are no lock to make the playoffs just yet. The defense is playing great ball but hasn't faced a tough test yet, and the offense is the worst of these 3-0 teams by a wide margin and has yet to be forced to respond to a negative game script, which probably won't go well.
The question really isn't whether to fade the Steelers — it's when.
This is a team I circled to fade before the season but knew already then we'd have to wait for our spot — with Week 11 circled on the calendar. Books aren't giving us much on Pittsburgh yet, with Miss Playoffs just +110, an implied 47.6%. I think that bet will hit, but I also think we'll get a much better price later if we wait.
If you do want to fade Pittsburgh right now, your best bet might just be a Ravens division ticket at +175 (Caesars), with FTN projecting Baltimore better than 50% to win the division, even at 1-2.
Verdict: Pass for now, but look to fade week-to-week and circle Week 11 and November 17 on your calendar to come back and get your Miss Playoffs bets in then.
