We close NFL Week 15 with a special treat: two Monday Night Football games. (Yes, I believe that even though Desmond Ridder is starting one of the games.)
First, the Vikings will host the Bears in an NFC North matchup at 8 p.m. ET, then Falcons vs. Raiders will kick off 30 minutes later from Las Vegas as Ridder faces his former team.
We have bets on the main markets for you for each game.
NFL Predictions: Monday Night Football
Our against-the-spread picks are on the favorites. These are two lopsided matchups, and John LanFranca will explain below why he's laying the points with each favorite.
Billy Ward split his picks on each games over/under. He sees reasons to believe defenses will thrive in Bears vs. Vikings, while the tempo in Falcons vs. Raiders will lead to points.
Bears vs. Vikings
Against the Spread
Vikings -7
John LanFranca: The spread moved the Vikings to the key number of 7 as they host the Bears on Monday night, and I still very much like their chances to win in convincing fashion.
In the first meeting between these two teams back in Week 12, but Minnesota averaged seven yards per play and had seven red-zone trips in comparison to the Bears' three. Ultimately, Minnesota won by three points in overtime.
The Bears once reliable defense has fallen off. In fact, since their Week 7 bye, no defense in the NFL has been worse. Chicago has allowed a league-high 6.6 yards per play and has been shredded through the air by allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, also the highest in the NFL over that span. The Bears' string of poor performances culminated in complete domination by the 49ers last week, as they out-gained Chicago 452-162 in a blowout victory.
The Vikings opted to play more passively than usual against Caleb Williams in the first matchup, but part of the reason for this could be Williams' struggle against zone coverage. Minnesota uses zone coverage in pass defense at a top-10 rate, and Williams is the 30th-ranked passer according to Passer Rating when the opposition plays zone coverage.
The Vikings have consistently started fast, leading the league in first-quarter point differential. The Bears, though, are the exact opposite, ranking last in the NFL in differential in the opening frame. Minnesota should start fast once more against a vulnerable Bears defense, which should only further the frenzied crowd noise once Williams finds himself in obvious passing situations when playing in catch-up mode. Williams has averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempt on the road this season, which is 30th in the NFL.
All signs point towards a Vikings blowout victory.
Over/Under Pick
Under 44.5
Billy Ward: While Caleb Williams has somewhat rebounded after going full-speed into a rookie wall, the Bears have scored more than 20 points just once in their last seven games. A matchup against the NFL's No. 1 defense, according to DVOA, isn't a great way to fix that.
I project this game as a tough spot for both offensive lines, but particularly Chicago's. The Bears have the worst combined adjusted sack rate matchup in Week 15 and will be without their starting center on the road.
For the Vikings, it's not as bad of a spot, but their offensive line has also done poorly in protecting Sam Darnold. I expect the Vikings to really thrive offensively on the ground here, which would keep the clock moving and help the under.
If the Bears can't get anything going on offense, there won't be any need for the Vikings to push the pace. It's entirely possible that Chicago will get shut down here.
While this was a high-scoring matchup in Week 12 that saw 57 points scored in a Vikings overtime win, defenses typically do better the second time around against opponents.
Falcons vs. Raiders
Against the Spread
Falcons -5.5
John LanFranca: The Falcons have lost four straight games and failed to cover in each game. Teams that are favored following four consecutive against the spread losses are 54-40 (57.4%) against the spread over the entirety of Action Labs database.
Over that four-game losing streak, the Falcons have lost the turnover battle badly. Against the team with the worst turnover differential over the entirety of the season, I like Atlanta to capitalize on its opportunities when the Raiders eventually do make the mistakes they have consistently made this season.
Regardless of which quarterback, Desmond Ridder or Aiden O'Connell, starts for the Raiders on Monday night, the Falcons defense will have chances to generate takeaways. Since the beginning of 2023, Ridder has a 5.6% turnover-worthy throw rate, the fourth-highest rate in the league among quarterbacks with significant playing time. As for O'Connell, his 4.5% turnover-worthy throw rate is the sixth-worst among signal callers who have started multiple games this season.
Another reason I expect the Falcons to play a clean game is their ability to gash the rush defense of the Raiders with Bijan Robinson. He's playing the best football of his young career with 80 or more yards in six of his last eight games. Robinson also ranks third in receptions out of all running backs, and the Raiders surrender a 95% catch rate on passes to backs this season. Las Vegas is coming off a performance in which they allowed 174 total yards and two touchdowns to running backs last week.
This is an easy spot for the Falcons to bounce back and end their four-game skid.
Over/Under Pick
Over 44.5
Billy Ward: This game features two of the eight worst defenses in the NFL entering Week 15, according to DVOA.
I'm projecting at least above-average matchups for both offenses lines in the running and passing games. This should be an up-tempo matchup, as well, as both teams play at a top-eight pace, although that could be because of their 8-18 combined record. Atlanta plays at the NFL's third-fastest neutral game script and could force the Raiders to keep up if it gets out to an early lead.
The Raiders' quarterback situation doesn't give me optimism, but I ultimately don't see much of a difference between Aidan O'Connell and Desmond Ridder.
As long as the Raiders can keep this game reasonably close, there will be plenty of points to go around.
