I'm targeting a pair of spread picks on Sunday of NFL Week 14 with predictions for Browns vs. Steelers and Bears vs. 49ers. And I'm not done there, as I also have an over/under pick for Falcons vs Vikings, plus a pair of player props for Saints vs. Giants.
So, let's get right into my five expert NFL picks and analysis.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions for Week 14
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Browns vs Steelers Spread Pick
The best thing about backing Jameis Winston against the spread (ATS) in a spot like this is that he throws lots of pick-sixes.
That may sound like a joke, but I’m not kidding: Winston is 21-11-1 (65.6%) ATS as a 'dog of +3.5 or more despite throwing a pick-six in just over 15% of those contests (5-of-33).
In other words, when the point spread spots Winston at least half a pick-six, he covers two-thirds of the time: 2-3 when he throws a pick-six, 19-8-1 (70.4%) when he doesn’t.
Winston has taken the Browns from a team that couldn’t crack 20 points or 300 yards of offense over the first seven weeks of the season and transformed them into an offense that hangs 32 points on 552 total yards on a Broncos defense that still compares favorably to Pittsburgh’s in almost every metric, including points allowed (18.0 vs. 18.2), yards per play (4.9 vs. 5.4) and defensive DVOA (fifth vs. eighth).
The Steelers are good, but I don’t think we’ve reached a point where they should be laying a TD in a late-season divisional matchup against a team they just lost to two weeks ago.
After blowing out the Jets by 22 in Russell Wilson’s first start, the Steelers have an average point differential of just+2.0 over their last five games. In the last four weeks, Pittsburgh squeaked out wins by one, two and six, and suffered its only loss with Wilson at the helm to these Browns (24-19 in Week 12).
The weather did give Cleveland an assist in that game, but the Browns are still a well-coached team with an explosive offense and talented defense.
Divisional matchups, especially the second meeting, tend to be tighter, and the Steelers not only have to flip the last result from a loss to a win, they’d need to flip it by at least two TDs (12 points) to cover, which is not easy to do in the parity-driven NFL.
According to our Bet Labs data, home favorites that have gone 4-2 ATS or better over their last six are just 60-93-7 (39.2%) ATS in divisional matchups over the past two decades.
The Steelers are good, but also lucky.
For instance, the Steelers beat the Ravens 18-16 a few weeks ago in a game in which they settled for six field goals while the Ravens scored two TDs, but also missed two field goals and a two-point conversion.
According to our Week 14 Luck Rankings, the Steelers currently rate as the NFL’s second-luckiest team, while the Browns are 28th — i.e., the fifth-unluckiest, a massive gap of 26 spots.. When there’s a gap of 24 places or more, the unlucky team is 128-75-6 (62.7%) ATS since 2018.
Pick: Browns +7 (-110); Bet to +6
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Falcons vs Vikings Over/Under Best Bet
The Vikings defense ranks first in overall DVOA and second against the pass. They blitz at the highest rate and generate pressure at the fourth-highest rate.
Kirk Cousins is a 36-year-old QB coming off a torn Achilles who has scrambled twice all year. His 3.3% TD rate versus the blitz ranks 29th of 38 qualifiers, though I suppose the more relevant stat is that he hasn’t thrown a TD pass since Week 9.
Cousins is coming off a disastrous outing against the Chargers in which he completed only 3-of-13 passes that traveled 10+ yards downfield and threw four interceptions, all from from a clean pocket.
All signs point to a bunch of vengeful handoffs for Cousins in his return to Minnesota.
The Falcons defense is also capable of holding their end of the bargain. They held the Chargers to 187 yards of total offense and 4.1 yards per play last week.
The Falcons employ a zone-heavy scheme, and Sam Darnold goes from a league-leading 12.2% TD rate against man to 2.4% against zone (29th).
Opposing passers have an aDOT of 6.6 against the Falcons, the second-lowest mark in the league. Atlanta’s scheme forces opposing passers to check down at the seventh-highest rate (14.4%) and throw 2.5 yards short of the sticks on average (third-lowest).
Both teams are 8-4 (66.7%) to the under this season, and the under is 4-1 (80.0%) in Minnesota.
Pick: Under 46 (-110); Bet to Under 44
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Derek Carr Player Props
The Giants’ streak of 11 straight games without an interception is a good bet to extend to 12 against Derek Carr, who is posting a career-low 2.1% turnover-worthy throw rate and averaging a career-low 27.6 pass attempts per game.
The Giants face only 28.4 passing attempts per game, third-lowest, and that trend should continue with all their best players mysteriously popping up with injuries.
Carr hasn’t thrown a pick in four games and counting since returning from injury. He’s only thrown four all season, and all came targeting either Rashid Shaheed (knee) or Chris Olave (concussion), who are both on IR.
Pick: Derek Carr Under 0.5 Interceptions (-143 to -160)
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Drew Lock Player Props
With Lock failing to throw for a score last week against the Cowboys, Giants starting quarterbacks have now failed to throw a TD pass in 8-of-12 games.
The Saints are 26th in defensive DVOA, but that’s mostly due to their 32nd-ranked run defense.
New Orleans is 14th in DVOA against the pass and has held the opposition's starting quarterback without a TD pass in 6-of-12 games.
The Saints have allowed only 12 TD passes on the season, tied for fourth-fewest. Only 12-of-31 (38.7%) TDs allowed by the Saints have come via the pass, second-lowest.
Pick: Drew Lock Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+185 to +170)
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Bears vs. 49ers Spread Prediction
In the last three weeks, the Bears kept the final margin within three points or fewer against the Lions, Vikings, and Packers, who currently rank first, sixth and seventh, respectively, in Super Bowl odds.
Ironically, it’s last year’s NFC champion that represents the easiest matchup the Bears have had in a month.
At 5-7, the 49ers are a long shot to even make the playoffs. Injuries have chipped away at their dominance and made them more of a mediocre team that struggles to cover by margin. The 49ers are 4-8 ATS and have the third-worst ATS margin (-5.6).
The Bears have a solid roster with no glaring holes.
Earlier in the season, their glaring weaknesses had been coaching, and the play of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but they were able to address both by firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron three weeks ago.
Williams went from a 60.5% completion rate, 6.1 YPA, nine TDs and five INTs under Waldron to a 64.1% completion rate, 7.1 YPA, five TDs and zero INTs under Thomas Brown. In the last two weeks, Williams racked up 668 total yards with five TDs and no turnovers against Detroit and Minnesota, the NFL’s top two defenses, according to DVOA.
Brown is now the interim head coach after the Bears fired Matt Eberflus, which works in the Bears' favor for this game, at least:
Since 2003, teams in their first game after firing their head coach are 23-16 (59.0%) ATS.
The 49ers' glaring weakness is injuries, and you can’t fire injuries. Right now, nearly all of the 49ers best players are injured:
- DE Nick Bosa (oblique) – out this week
- LT Trent Williams (ankle) – out this week
- RB Christian McCaffrey (knee) – out for season
- LB Fred Warner (ankle) – revealed he is playing through a fractured ankle
- QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) – Missed Week 12 start due to shoulder soreness
Warner has missed 30% of his tackle attempts over the last three games – nearly three times his career rate (11.7%).
Bosa has only missed two games, yet the 49ers are below league average in pressure rate on the year. They are also reluctant to blitz, doing so at the second-lowest rate. All five starters on the Bears' offensive line grade out in the 70th percentile or better, according to PFF.
Purdy is averaging 5.5 YPA over his past two starts with as many turnovers as TDs (two). I’m willing to chalk that up to the injury and then the snow, but the Bears defense does match up well here.
They are sixth in pressure rate, 10th in pass defense DVOA and fourth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers. They have one of the league’s best cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson, who should help to contain Jauan Jennings, who has emerged as Purdy’s top receiving option.
The Bears defense is great at getting off the field, clocking in at fifth in third-down conversion rate (34.2%), and fourth in red-zone conversion rate (40.9%). That is especially crucial against the 49ers, as Kyle Shanahan tends to opt to kick the field goal rather than go for it on fourth down. Compounding matters, kicker Jake Moody has made only 7-of-13 (53.8%) field-goal attempts from 40-plus yards this season.
The Bears' biggest weakness is run defense, but the 49ers see a dip of nearly a half-yard per carry efficiency with Williams out (4.6 to 4.2, per StatMuse). And not only are the 49ers missing McCaffrey, but also backup Jordan Mason (ankle), forcing rookie Isaac Guerendo into starting duties.
Also working in the Bears' favor is the 49ers’ home-field advantage is somewhat offset by the Bears coming off 10 days of rest while the 49ers are coming off a Sunday Night Football snow game.
According to our Action Labs data, the 49ers are 19-24-1 (44%) ATS as a home favorite under Kyle Shanahan.
Pick: Bears +3.5 (-110); Bet to +3
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