Our staff is focused on three Sunday games for its NFL predictions in Week 13.
Our experts' four bets are backing two sides (one in different ways) and an under. We have two picks for Texans vs. Jaguars and bets on Cardinals vs. Vikings and Buccaneers vs. Panthers.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL predictions for this weekend's Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions
- Texans vs. Jaguars Prediction Against the Spread: Texans -3.5
- Texans vs. Jaguars First-Half Prediction: Texans 1H -2.5 (-115)
- Cardinals vs. Vikings Prediction: Under 45.5 (-110)
- Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction: Panthers +6.5 (-115)
Texans vs. Jaguars
Texans -3.5
By Sam Farley
The Texans visit a Jaguars team who are bringing back Trevor Lawrence from injury far sooner than most expected. The sensible thing would be for the Jags to shut Lawrence down but jobs are at stake, so he's playing. So we have a QB who isn't totally healthy, against the league's worst pass defense and seventh worst run defense. The Texans might have struggled in recent weeks but they're healthier, hungrier and have something to play for. They cover with ease.
I'd bet this one up to Texans -5.
Texans 1H -2.5
By Simon Hunter
I love this spot for the Texans coming off a bad loss and going on the road to face another divisional opponent. If Houston really is the best team in the AFC South and a playoff team, it'll bounce back here.
The Texans have been up until last week the best team against the first-half spread this season at 10-2. This line has shifted with the news that Trevor Lawrence will be back for the Jaguars. Now that hasn't crossed the key number of three for the first-half spread, it’s way too good to pass on.
Before Lawrene got injured, he was playing behind an offensive line that graded out in the bottom seven in the league. He'll now face a Texans defense that had eight sacks last week. Also, we've seen players struggle to find a rhythm this season after missing a few weeks with injuries.
I’d stay away from the full-game spread personally since we’ve seen the Texans struggle to close teams out. Play the first-half spread. Punish the books for moving this number too much based off Lawrence's return.
Cardinals vs. Vikings
Under 45 (-110)
Given the Vikings boast the top defensive DVOA in the league and the resurgence of the Arizona defense, this matchup looks primed for a low-scoring affair.
Only 25% of all possessions against the Minnesota defense have reached the red zone or resulted in a touchdown, which is the lowest rate in the NFL this season.
The Vikings remain one of the most aggressive blitzing defenses, and Kyler Murray ranks 28th in yards per attempt at 6.1 yards per attempt when extra defenders are sent his way. His completion percentage is 55% against the blitz, and it's part of the reason why the Cardinals offense struggles badly in third-and-long situations. According to Sharp Football, Arizona has converted just five of 44 situations in which they faced third-and-7 or longer, which is the worst rate for any offense this season.
The Cardinals defense has made tremendous strides since the beginning of the regular season, having allowed just one of its last five opponents to score 17 points. The Cardinals limited the Seahawks to 4.7 yards per play, while generating five sacks against Geno Smith last week. This is a defense trending in the right direction over the past month.
Based on the play of both these defenses, I love the value we are getting playing this total under the key number of 45, and I would play this down to 44.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Panthers +6.5 (-115)
The Panthers have covered in three straight games, winning two of those games outright and almost upsetting the Chiefs last week at home. Their season-long metrics are not indicative of how this team is currently playing.
The Panthers held the Saints to under six yards per play in their victory back in Week 9. While putting up an impressive defensive performance against a lifeless Giants team is not all that impressive, the Panthers defense held up well in Week 10 despite being on the field for 74 plays in that game, and limited New York to 4.7 yards per play.
If those two games didn't convince you of improvements by this defensive unit, sacking Patrick Mahomes five times and surrendering fewer than six yards per play once again against a stronger opponent should display the positive strides they are making.
In addition to defensive improvements, Bryce Young is coming off the best performance of his career. Specifically impressive by Young, carving up the Chiefs secondary when faced with the blitz, going 10-of-13 for 125 yards and a touchdown.
Dealing with the blitz is essential to success against the Buccaneers because Todd Bowles' Tampa Bay defense challenged the former first overall pick by using an extreme blitz-heavy game plan in their two meetings last season, sending extra defenders on 58% of all dropbacks in their two games in 2023.
I like the Panthers to once again stay competitive against familiar opponent on Sunday afternoon.
