The number in parenthesis is a confidence rating from 1-10.
Matt Gay (Rams) — Under 2 FGM (6)
Every FGM prop for the preseason should be 1.5 (unless there are multiple kickers active). Being able to get Under 2 is too good to pass up.
Here is my expected distribution for Gay’s made field goals today:
| Field Goals Made | Odds |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.18 |
| 1 | 0.31 |
| 2 | 0.26 |
| 3 | 0.15 |
| 4 | 0.06 |
| 5 | 0.02 |
| 6 | 0.01 |
Therefore this prop has a 49% chance to win, 26% chance of ending in a push, and 24% chance of losing.
Jake Browning (Bengals) — Under 105.5 Passing Yards (7)
The Bengals expect to replicate their Week 2 approach against the Rams. Browning started the second half last week but gave way to Drew Plitt in the fourth quarter.
Browning will struggle to clear this number in about 1 1/2 quarters of action. I’m projecting him closer to 87.5 yards.
John Wolford (Rams) — Under 115.5 Passing Yards (8)
Wolford is questionable for today’s game with a hangnail on his throwing hand. Even if he does suit up, I wouldn’t expect him to play more than 1-1 1/2 quarters.
I like the correlation of taking the under on his passing yard prop and the over on Bryce Perkins’ rushing prop. I’m projecting Wolford’s median closer to 85.5 pass yards.
Bryce Perkins — Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (8)
There is a chance Perkins ends up playing the entire game. Instead of taking the over on his passing prop, I like the idea of targeting his rushing prop. He could clear this number in just 2-2 1/2 quarters of action (if Wolford ends up suiting up).
Love the correlation between the two Rams QB props. I’m projecting this one closer to 20.5 yards.
Trayveon Williams — Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (9)
The Bengals are expected to have a similar game plan as Week 2. That means Williams will likely lead the Bengals backfield in rush attempts today, so I’m projecting him closer to 33.5 yards.
