Because of all the NFL games played earlier in the week, we have just nine on Sunday, including the Sunday Night Football headliner. Still, there's plenty to come up with an NFL PrizePicks play this week.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Sunday.
NFL Week 17 PrizePicks Plays for Sunday
Tua Tagovailoa MORE Than 31.5 Pass Attempts
Editor's Note: Tagovailoa has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday's game.
This is a pretty low line for Tagovailoa, who we have projected for over 35 attempts in our NFL Props Tool.
I see how PrizePicks arrived at this projection, of course. Miami is expected to win easily against the Browns, who clearly have the worst offense in football with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback.
That typically leads to an increased rushing rate for the winning team. However, the short-passing game for the Dolphins functions much like the ground game for other teams.
In Miami's three double-digit wins this season, Tagovailoa has attempted 34, 40 and 36 passes. I expect him to land in a similar range here.
Cooper Rush MORE Than 188.5 Passing Yards
Rush has performed admirably since stepping in for Dak Prescott.
Dallas is 4-2 in the six full games started by Rush, and he's thrown for at least 195 passing yards in five of those six.
While the Eagles are the toughest passing defense by DVOA he's faced in that span, Philadelphia ranks just one spot ahead of the Texans — against whom Rush threw for more than 350 yards.
Philadelphia's offense will also be without Jalen Hurts, making it slightly harder for them to control the ball and the clock. I fully expect the Eagles to get a lead here, but they'll have a harder time keeping the Cowboys offense off the field.
My analysis and our projections are bullish on all of Rush's MORE projections, but his passing yards have the biggest edge.
Jayden Reed LESS Than 51.5 Receiving Yard
The Packers rank 29th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season while splitting those limited looks fairly evenly among a handful of players.
They have four wide receivers with at least an 11.8% target share, none of whom top 15.7%. That doesn't even include tight end Tucker Kraft (13.6%) or running back Josh Jacobs (9.5%).
That's worked out to an average of less than five targets per game for Reed. He hasn't seen more than six since September, in a game Christian Watson left after just nine snaps.
Therefore, he'd need to be fairly efficient to pick up more than 52 receiving yards, to the tune of about 8.6 yards per target, even if he falls at the top of his typical usage range. That will be tough against the league's No. 2 passing defense by DVOA.
Our projections have him with a median in the low 40s.
Jayden Daniels MORE Than 21 Fantasy Points
Sunday Night Football gives us a matchup between two teams competing for a playoff spot/playoff position, with this a crucial game for both the Commanders and Falcons.
Daniels has been a big part of the Commanders' success, and he's picked up at least 23 fantasy points in four straight games. That span includes two close wins, a blowout win and a loss.
The point is he can get there in nearly any game script. Nothing about the Falcons' 24th-ranked defense by DVOA suggests that they'll be able to stop him, but the Falcons offense should do enough to push Daniels to stay aggressive.
I like a variety of MORE squares on Daniels, but the fantasy points projection is the easiest way to roll them all together.
