We've arrived at the final week of the NFL regular season, with 14 games on Sunday.
Many of these final games feature at least one team with questionable motivation levels. Assessing that and correctly projecting workload can lead to some big edges on player performance, which we'll hopefully do here.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Week 18.
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NFL Week 18 PrizePicks Plays for Sunday
- Terry McLaurin Less Than 61.5 Receiving Yards
- Jayden Daniels Less Than 48.5 Rushing Yards
- Davante Adams More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
Terry McLaurin Less Than than 61.5 Receiving Yards
Our projections have McLaurin at 30.5 receiving yards, making this a massive edge.
I don't see the Commanders risking McLaurin or starting quarterback Jayden Daniels much in Week 18 since they've already secured a playoff spot and, at worst, are fighting for the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
Plus, they're taking on a Cowboys defense that is much more easily attacked on the ground. While McLaurin has the ability to bust big plays, his odds of doing so are much lower with his likely workload on Sunday.
Jayden Daniels Less Than 46.5 Rushing Yards
While the Cowboys typically allow plenty of rushing production, I expect far fewer designed runs for Daniels.
Keeping Daniels healthy is far more important than winning the game, and the Commanders should be able to move the ball effectively through their running backs.
Plus, pairing this with the McLaurin play builds in some natural correlation. If Washington rests starters — or just plays slow to shorten the game — both of those plays are more likely to hit.
Davante Adams More Than 0.5 Touchdowns
Sunday could be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, and will almost certainly be his last with the Jets.
Rodgers has 499 career passing touchdowns. No. 200 was to Davante Adams — the first of Adams' NFL career — as was number 400.
If this is the end for Rodgers, he'll certainly want to hit the 500 mark, which only four other players have done. I'm sure he'd like to get there through Adams, who he pushed the Jets to trade for early in the season.
While I considered Rodgers' projection of 0.5 touchdowns, that was an "angel" play on PrizePicks. Adams' touchdown projection is a "demon," meaning a juicier payout if it hits.
That reason — and the likelihood that Rodgers forces No. 500 to Adams — makes this the better option.
