The NFL Playoffs start on Saturday with the first two games of Wild Card Weekend. We kick off with Chargers vs Texans at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by Steelers vs Ravens at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Saturday.
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NFL PrizePicks Plays — Wild Card Saturday
Gus Edwards LESS 19.5 Rushing Yards
The biggest edge in our projections for this game is Edwards' total carries, but that's not being offered by PrizePicks.
Still, his yardage number is a reasonable proxy, especially considering how inefficient Edwards has been with the workload he has handled. His 3.6 yards per attempt this season is a career low, and he would need at least six carries at that rate to go for more than 19.5 yards.
I don't see that workload coming for Edwards, considering J.K. Dobbins is the clear lead back for the Chargers. Dobbins is officially questionable, but given the stakes, he's almost certainly going to suit up.
Plus, the Chargers have been one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league down the stretch, which probably doesn't change against the Texans' tough run defense.
Joe Mixon MORE than 70.5 Rushing Yards
On the other side, the Chargers feature a run-funnel defense. They rank sixth in DVOA against the pass, but 17th against the run.
On top of that, Houston is down two of its original three starting wideouts, which should incentivize them to lean on the ground game.
My offensive line matchup projections have this as an above-average matchup for the Texans' front as well, so Mixon should be fairly efficient — and well rested, after handling just five carries in an effectively meaningless Week 18 matchup.
Plus, there's a natural correlation between the two picks so far. If Houston is controlling the game on the ground, that likely means less Gus Edwards on the other side.
Najee Harris LESS than 12.5 Rush Attempts
I'm going to continue to fade Harris here as long as the option is available.
Not only are the Steelers huge underdogs — which should decrease their overall rushing rate — but Harris isn't even their best running back. Jaylen Warren is, and he's cut heavily into Harris' workload in recent weeks.
Harris has topped 13 carries just once in the last four weeks — all Pittsburgh losses — with just nine in the prior meeting against Baltimore.
Considering that Pittsburgh also gets its best receiver George Pickens back this time, it's hard to see him bucking that trend.
George Pickens MORE Than 55.5 Receiving Yards
I'm going against our projections (which have Pickens' median at 50.3 yards). That's partially due to the correlation inherent in having a rushing attempts LESS and a receiving yards MORE pick from the same team.
It's more about how teams typically attack the Ravens, though. Baltimore has faced the highest opponent Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the league this season. In the first meeting between these teams, Pickens turned 12 targets into eight catches and 89 yards.
That game was a narrow win for Pittsburgh. If this one sticks closer to the market's expectation, we should see an even higher pass rate from Pittsburgh, boosting Pickens' odds further.
