We've got two NFL games on Saturday for Week 18 of the regular season, with all four teams representing the AFC North. We start with Browns-Ravens at 4:30 p.m. ET, followed by Bengals-Steelers at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Baltimore can win the division with a victory over the tanking Browns. Assuming Baltimore wins, Pittsburgh will have nothing to play for in the night game, but Cincinnati needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Here are my NFL PrizePicks plays for Saturday.
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NFL PrizePicks Plays — Saturday Week 18
Lamar Jackson LESS than 46.5 Rushing Yards
While I expect the Ravens to come out strong, that doesn't mean they're willing to risk the health of their key players.
Baltimore needs a win to open the playoffs at home, but odds are very good that it has this one wrapped up early against Cleveland.
That means we shouldn't expect many designed runs for Jackson. On top of that, if the Ravens get out to a big lead early it's fairly likely that Jackson takes a good chunk of the second half off.
He'll still scramble on occasion, but probably not enough to go above this number.
We have Jackson projected for 41 rushing yards in our NFL Tool.
Joe Burrow LESS than 39.5 Pass Attempts
While Burrow and the Bengals throw the ball a ton, this is still a big number to clear. Burrow has attempted 40 or more passes in two of his last five games, but both of those were relatively close wins.
While this game certainly could follow that script, there's not a ton for the Steelers to play for assuming Baltimore handles its business in the early game.
That likely means Pittsburgh trying to run out the clock offensively when it has the ball in order to shorten the game and lessen injury risk.
It's also going to be cold and windy for the night game in Pittsburgh, which could somewhat incentivize both teams to run the ball more.
Burrow has 38 passing attempts in the prior meeting with Pittsburgh, and that was with much better conditions.
Najee Harris MORE than 12 Rushing Attempts
Harris has carried the ball at least 12 times in all but two Steelers games this season. Both of those games were losses of two touchdowns or more.
Pittsburgh is a very slight underdog to the Bengals, so we should expect a reasonably close game throughout. Additionally, I'm anticipating Pittsburgh to skew a bit more run heavy than usual, given the weather and the desire to shorten the game in what's effectively a meaningless contest for them.
This play also correlates nicely with the less on Burrow's passing attempts since Pittsburgh controlling the time of possession with the running game helps the chances of both picks.
