Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every primetime game throughout the 2021 season. He has a 493-388-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Cardinals-Rams Prop Bet
DeAndre Hopkins Under 5.5 Receptions
Last week, Hopkins returned from a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for three games. He had two catches for 32 yards and a touchdown on just a 81% routes run rate. And while I'm projecting him to return to his full-time role of around 90-95% routes run tonight, I'm still projecting him for only 4.9 receptions.
I still consider Hopkins to be an elite receiver — a top 10 one, at that. However, Kyler Murray has so many weapons at his disposal in Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz. The competition has led Hopkins seeing a target on just 17.6% of his routes run, which has made it difficult for him to clear 5.5 receptions this season — he's done it in only three of nine games, a 33% over rate.
| Rec | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
| 1.5 | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| 2.5 | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 3.5 | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 4.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| 5.5 | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 6.5 | 20.9% | 79.1% |
| 7.5 | 11.3% | 88.7% |
| 8.5 | 5.6% | 94.4% |
I'm projecting him for positive regression with a target per route run rate closer to 20.5%, along with a slight boost to the Cardinals passing game with Jalen Ramsey (COVID) ruled out– but I'm still projecting Hopkins for only 4.9 projections.
It's important to note that the Rams play more zone coverage this season and haven't used Ramsey to "shadow" anyone. The fact that he's unavailable tonight gives all Cardinals pass-catchers a slight boost.
I always like props for which I'm factoring in a ton of positive regression for a player and still show value on his under. There is a chance the Cardinals continue to limit his snaps, or that his hamstring flares up, or that he continues to see a target rate closer to 17.5% going forward. If any of those three factors come to fruition, there would be even more value on his under.
It's also worth noting that Carl Cheffers' crew will be officiating the game. They've averaged the most penalties called per game this season, including the second-most penalties on defense backs, so the Cardinals' odds of moving the ball downfield via penalties as opposed to a completed pass also (slightly) play into the under here.
I would bet this down to -155.
Pick: Under 5.5 Rec (-150) at BetMGM
