Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 6.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
The Steelers top the Luck Rankings for the third week in a row by continuing an incredible lucky streak where they were the luckiest team of Week 5.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-5-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-59-6 (63.1%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 6.
NFL Week 6 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.57% | |
| 2 | 27.03% | |
| 3 | 23.52% | |
| 4 | 20.44% | |
| 5 | 17.66% | |
| 6 | 16.62% | |
| 7 | 12.93% | |
| 8 | 12.77% | |
| 9 | 6.20% | |
| 10 | 5.81% | |
| 11 | 2.27% | |
| 12 | 1.82% | |
| 13 | 1.48% | |
| 14 | -0.51% | |
| 15 | -0.61% | |
| 16 | -0.94% | |
| 17 | -1.65% | |
| 18 | -2.20% | |
| 19 | -2.36% | |
| 20 | -5.97% | |
| 21 | -6.68% | |
| 22 | -7.22% | |
| 23 | -7.44% | |
| 24 | -7.70% | |
| 25 | -8.03% | |
| 26 | -8.58% | |
| 27 | -12.35% | |
| 28 | -15.64% | |
| 29 | -16.22% | |
| 30 | -22.42% | |
| 31 | -31.82% | |
| 32 | -33.31% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' incredible luck continued as they beat division rival Baltimore 17-10, despite an Expected Score of 21-16 in the Ravens favor.
Several key plays and decisions highlight the Ravens' poor luck but suffice it to say Pittsburgh's 3-2 record despite a 21.4% win percentage expectation based on Expected Score keeps them at the top of the board.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With a bye in Week 5, the Bucs remain in the second spot.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles dropped from 28.7% to 23.5% in our Luck% metric after their nine-point win over the Rams, which graded out more like a 15-point win by Expected Score. However, that's not enough to move them out of the top three in our Luck Rankings.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Carolina Panthers
Carolina joins the bottom three for the first time this year after Chicago's win over the Commanders left the Panthers as the only winless team in the NFL. The Panthers have scored 91 points and allowed 144 points. Amazingly enough, that's the exact (rounded) score they should have both scored and allowed by our Expected Score metric.
With those point totals, we'd expect about one win in these five games for the Panthers, which is why their 0-5 record makes them a bit unlucky. Most notably, their three-point loss to the Saints in Week 2 could have gone either way.
31. Cleveland Browns
With a bye in Week 5, the Browns move off the bottom line thanks to another team's misfortune.
32. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings once again lose in a one-score contest, dropping them to 1-4, all of which have been one-score games. With their 112-108 Expected Score points for and against, we'd expect the Vikings to be around a .500 team. That means win-loss records of 3-2, 2-3, or 2-2-1 would be reasonable, especially given every game has ended within a single score.
