What's primetime football without a little same-game parlay sweat?
Action Network NFL experts Sean Koerner, Nick Giffen and Gilles Gallant cooked up a juicy NFL parlay for tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys.
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Bengals vs. Cowboys Parlay Tonight
- Tee Higgins Under 14.5 Receiving Yards 1Q
- Joe Burrow Over 8.5 Rushing Yards
- Tanner Hudson Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Parlay Odds: +475 (FanDuel)
Tee Higging Under 14.5 Receiving Yards 1Q
Nick Giffen: With Orlando Brown Jr. out, Cody Ford will slide over to left tackle. Well, Ford allows an 8.3% higher pressure rate than Brown at left tackle, which equates to 3.5 more pressures on Burrow based on his average of 41 dropbacks. Additionally, there may be even more pressure with Micah Parsons attacking Burrow.
Ja'Marr Chase averages 13.7 targets per game in games without Brown, compared to 7.6 in games with Brown. However, Chase's target volume doesn’t drop as much as Higgins’ does with pressure.
Chase drops from 0.26 to 0.15 with pressure, while Higgins goes from 0.11 to 0.13.
Dallas also blitzes at a high rate and Burrow's checkdown rate drops about 10% against the blitz. Chase is Cincinnati's top option when it comes to targets per route run against the blitz (0.34) and Da’Ron Bland is more likely to shadow Higgins, per Fantasy Points data. Bland allowed just seven receptions for 53 yards total when shadowing Terry McLaurin and Malik Nabers.
Need more convincing? Well, the Cowboys are more likely to start with ball. Mike McCarthy has chosen to receive 48% of time over the past three years, including 62.5% this year. Meanwhile, Zac Taylor chooses to receive just 38% of the time and only 25% this year.
The Bengals can establish the run early in the game and could have one fewer possession. Take the under here.
Joe Burrow Over 8.5 Rushing Yards
Gilles Gallant: The handicap on this one is simple.
The Cowboys allow the most rushing yards to quarterbacks and Burrow has hit this line in four of his past five games.
Tanner Hudson Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Sean Koerner: Tanner Hudson might not get a ton of playing time, but when he’s on the field, it tends to be a pass play and he tends to see a high target rate.
He’s been targeted on 31% of his routes run this season and that’s been the case for him in his two seasons with the Bengals. He also tends to generate a high percentage of targets underneath, which the Cowboys have struggled with as they're allowing the third-most yards after catch over expected.
I have Hudson projected to run a route on around 10 of Burrow’s dropbacks, which could turn into two-to-three catches and should be enough to clear this line.
