NFL Week 1 Pick Advice: Strategy for Survivor & Pick’em Pools (2024)

Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is here, and it's time to make your picks for NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests with the help of the experts at PoolGenius.

This article highlights three strategies for Week 1 picks, whether you're selecting a team in your survivor pool, deciding how to allocate points in a football confidence pool, or identifying the upset picks that maximize your chances of winning a weekly NFL contest.

Free Week 1 Football Pool Picks

Before we dive into this week's analysis, just a heads up that you can get access to all of the football pool picks and tools on PoolGenius for free for NFL Week 1, plus some great season discounts courtesy of Action Network:

Week 1 NFL Survivor Picks: A Risky Start

The Week 1 schedule is challenging. Only Cincinnati is favored by more than seven points, and only two additional teams (Buffalo and Seattle) are favored by more than four points.

In the past decade, Week 1 has typically seen an average of three teams favored by a touchdown or more and six teams favored by more than four points.

The choices were already limited, but this week’s options are historically riskier than most Week 1 slates. We researched Week 1 games from previous seasons based on head coach status (new or returning) and quarterback situation (consistent starter, returning from injury, or new to the team).

The data shows that Week 1 games are more unpredictable when new coaches or changes in quarterback situations are involved.

For example, since 2009, in Week 1 games with a spread of three points or more, when the underdog had a new starting QB or one who missed at least five games the previous year due to injury, suspension, or benching, the favorite won only 65% of the time and covered the spread just 41% of the time.

Similarly, when the underdog in those Week 1 games had a new head coach, the favorite won 69% of the time but covered only 44% of the time.

Notably, the six most popular Week 1 survivor picks—all favored by four or more points—are facing underdogs with either a new head coach, a new quarterback, or a QB returning from injury.

With so much uncertainty, 37% of the public is favoring the Cincinnati Bengals, the biggest favorite. However, the Bengals carry significant future value, presenting a dilemma for survivor players. Should you consider a less popular team, like the 27% backing a team favored by 3.5 points or fewer? Cincinnati could be a strong pick if you have multiple entries or are in a smaller pool. However, in larger pools, there may be more value in taking on extra risk and saving Cincinnati for a future week when their value might be even greater. PoolGenius can assist you in making this decision by providing pick recommendations based on your pool size, entry count, and other key factors, helping you develop the optimal strategy to maximize your chances of winning.

Week 1 NFL Pick'em & Confidence Pool Picks: Ohio Teams in the Spotlight

We’ll highlight two teams for Confidence and Game Winner pools, both of which just happen to be from Ohio.

The Bengals are the biggest favorite this week, but the public is fairly divided on which favorites they expect to be upset in Week 1.

Cincinnati’s popularity in game-winner pools is at 88%, but they are one of eight Week 1 favorites picked by 80% or more of the public. Some similarly popular favorites are much riskier, including three teams favored by just 3.5 points.

In that context, sticking with Cincinnati as your top confidence pick is a smart way to start the season since many other entries may opt for a riskier choice for their highest-point selection.

Meanwhile, Cleveland stands out as the only value favorite being picked as if they were the underdog. The Browns are favored by 2.5 points at home against the Cowboys, yet 57% of the public is siding with Dallas. Choosing the favored Browns not only gives you the team more likely to win but also positions you against the majority of your pool.

This is a subtle strategy, but in a confidence pool, one way to gain incremental value is by assigning more confidence points to teams that are under-picked by the public relative to other teams with similar win odds. Bumping Cleveland to the top of your point range, compared to similar-sized favorites, is a smart way to apply this strategy for the start of 2024.

Our customized pick logic considers the size of your pool and other factors to determine how much you should adjust confidence points on Cleveland. Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product to see our specific recommendations.

Weekly Prize Strategy for Week 1 Pools: Green Bay, Carolina, and Washington Offer Higher-Value Upset Picks

In weekly prize contests, it often pays to make one or two contrarian picks with strong risk-reward profiles. These are typically unpopular teams that are only slight to moderate underdogs based on betting odds.

Three Week 1 upset picks that offer solid contrarian value at reasonable risk premiums are Green Bay, Carolina, and Washington.

Green Bay (+2.5) is being picked by just 26% of pool participants, yet we project their win odds at around 45%. For comparison, other underdogs of less than a field goal—like the Giants (38% pick popularity) and Cowboys (57%)—are more heavily picked, making the Packers the best 'bang for the buck' smaller upset position to take.

When looking at games with a 3-4 point spread, both Carolina and Washington present decent value. Each is being picked by around 20% of the public despite having win odds close to 39%. Both teams also fit the 'new coach/quarterback' dynamic we highlighted in the survivor section, with new head coaches and Washington starting rookie QB Jayden Daniels.

Neither upset would be surprising if it occurred. Based on betting odds, there's over a 60% chance that at least one of these upsets happens and a 15% chance that both do. In a typical pick'em pool, only 4% of entries are likely to choose both the Panthers and Commanders, while about 64% of your opponents would be on the opposite side of both picks.

Especially in larger pools where you’re competing against hundreds or thousands of entries, these calculated risks can improve your odds and give you a more realistic shot at winning a weekly prize. While these picks are riskier, you often need to hit on two or three game upset parlays in a weekly contest to win the week. If they hit, you’ll gain a significant edge over the rest of the field.

Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024

Maximizing your chances to win NFL survivor and football pick'em pools is about stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge lies in the sheer amount of data and math required, which most players don’t have the time, skill, or desire to tackle.

At PoolGenius, we handle all the data collection and analysis to help you compete like a pro in your 2024 football pools. Through our partnership with Action Network, you can access a no-obligation free trial and exclusive season discounts using the links below: