Pythagorean expectation is a formula devised to estimate the percentage of games a team “should” have won based on points scored and allowed.
By comparing a team’s actual win percentage to its Pythagorean win percentage we can determine which teams are overperforming and underperforming during a season.
The New England Patriots are 12-3 and have outscored their opponents by 198 points, the second-best point differential in football. It is weird to say, but despite the Pats' success this season, Bill Belichick & Co. have underperformed based on Pythagorean expectation.
Odds as of Friday at 9 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
The Patriots should have won 12.6 games. That 0.6-win differential between expected and actual wins isn’t much, but it does point to value backing Tom Brady this weekend.
Here's a look at which teams are being undervalued in NFL Week 17.
NFL Week 17 Betting System Picks
Since 2003, teams with a positive Pythagorean expectation playing in December or later have gone 598-560-39 (52%) against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs. Teams with winning records and a positive Pythagorean expectation have been the best bets:
A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $2,851 since 2003 according to Bet Labs.
The Patriots are 16-point favorites at home against the Dolphins on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). New England needs a win to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, but bettors are confident the Dolphins can keep it close — 63% of tickets are on Miami to cover.
History suggests the underperforming Patriots are undervalued by the betting market. The Action Network NFL simulations agree, projecting New England as a 17-point favorite.
TB12 and the Patriots aren’t the only team to match this system in Week 17.
Week 17 Matches
- New England Patriots (-16) vs. Miami Dolphins (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Minnesota Vikings (-1) vs. Chicago Bears (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Houston Texans (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
