Every Sunday night, I'll reveal the bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 14 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 14 Picks
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
The Packers and Lions have two of the top-three offenses in the NFL, so betting the under understandably isn't the most exciting play.
But they're both stout on defense as well. The Lions are top three against both the run and pass while the Packers have been trending up, especially against the pass.
While both offenses are good, they can be run heavy (which bleeds clock). The Packers have been the second-most run heavy team in the league behind only the Eagles.
In the first Lions-Packers game in November, they combined for nine drives of eight-plus plays. There were only two possessions in the first quarter.
Also, two of the touchdowns scored were a bit fluky — one being a pick-six and the other a late Packers touchdown in garbage time.
Trends also support the under.
- Divisional-game unders from Week 14 forward with a favorite of seven or fewer points are 127-94-1 (58%).
- Lions head coach Dan Campbell is 10-5 in favor of the under when the game total is at least 51 points. The overs have only hit when Detroit's offense puts up a crooked number.
- The under is 20-9-1 in Thursday games when the total is over 51.
Basically 51.5 is too high. Grab this number now since 51 is a key number.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Prediction
Another game with two defenses on the upswing.
The Cardinals lost on Sunday, but they limited the Vikings to 273 total yards and a paltry 1-for-8 on third downs. Arizona's defense already entered Week 13 in the top half of the league in overall DVOA, pass DVOA and rush DVOA.
As for the Seahawks defense, they continue to dominate. The Jets mustered just 175 yards on 48 plays (3.6 yards per play) after an early touchdown.
These teams played two weeks ago — there were only 26 points put up in that game, with the help of a pick-six. Both teams were held under 300 yards on offense and both quarterbacks were sacked five times. There wasn't much production from either rushing game.
The first trend from the Packers-Lions game applies here. Stay ahead of the key numbers (in the 41-44 range) and grab under 45.5.
Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction
The metrics say these defenses are fading, but still, they're each top 10 on the season.
We're going to see a lot of rushing in this game. The Chargers don't have J.K. Dobbins, but that won't stop them from trying.
And the Chiefs have Isiah Pacheco back and can power run against a Chargers defense that ranks 20th against the rush. This sets up for a game that a has a lot of long, boring drives — remember these teams met in Week 4 and the final score was 17-10.
Some trends of note for this Sunday night affair:
- Divisional-game unders from Week 14 forward with a favorite of seven or fewer points are 127-94-1 (58%).
- In divisional games from Week 14 forward that are played in weather 47 degrees or below, the under is 99-60-4 (62%).
- Since 2021, the under has a 61% hit rate in games featuring winds of 9 mph or more (10 mph winds are projected for Chargers-Chiefs).
- The under has a 59% hit rate in Jim Harbaugh games with a total below 44.
- Since 2019, primetime unders have a 61% hit rate.
- The Chargers are 8-4 to the under — none of their games reached 40 points until Weeks 10-12 (and two of these games featured strong offenses in the Bengals and Ravens).
The total for this game has already moved from 44.5 on Sunday morning to 43.5 as of Sunday night — 40, 41, 43 and 44 are key numbers so grab 43.5 while you can.
