NFL Odds & Picks
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Billy Ward: Anytime they play Sunday, Eagles first-half overs are my first stop for this column.
Regular readers of Action Predictive Analytics know all the relevant statistics: The Eagles are first in first-half scoring at 19.2 per game, but average only 10.5 in the second half. Thus, it’s still baffling sportsbooks assume that half – or less than half – of the scoring will take place in the first half.
This full-game total is 48.5.
Since noticing this trend in Week 9, I’ve given out this first-half over four times. It’s gone 4-0.
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Nick Giffen: Montgomery has been an absolute red-zone workhorse in the three games since Khalil Herbert was placed on IR, scoring two touchdowns on eight red-zone carries.
Now he gets a matchup against an Eagles' run-funnel defense that ranks second against the pass in DVOA, but only 24th against the run. The Bears are the league's most run-heavy team, and one of the best in efficiency, ranking ninth in rush DVOA and first in yards per carry.
One other factor that may play into Montgomery’s favor is the weather.
A 15 mph crosswind in the forecast could benefit the ground game in two ways: First, it could force teams to run a bit more, especially if there are any gusts. Second, it could force teams to go for it on fourth down at a higher rate instead of kicking a longer field goal. Both should increase touchdown opportunities on the ground, even if only slightly.
We have Montgomery’s touchdown odds projected at +125, so there’s an edge down to +140.
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Nick Giffen: Elliott has cleared this mark just three times in 13 games this season, and there’s little reason he could clear it against the Bears.
The Bears are last in defensive DVOA, so the Eagles are likely to pour in touchdowns. And the numbers back that up: Chicago's opponents have attempted 27 extra points compared to just eight field goals over the last seven games.
Now add in a 15 mph crosswind with gusts up to 23 mph, and it should hurt Elliott even more. Not only does it make longer kicks more difficult, but it also likely forces the Eagles to go for it on fourth down at a rate already higher than their top-six rate.
I have Elliott projected to hit this under 59.0% of the time and would bet this to -125.
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Sean Koerner: Knight dominated early-down work while Michael Carter handled every third down and two-minute drill snap last week. It will be difficult for Knight to command many targets if that type of usage holds.
Plus, Zach Wilson has targeted his running backs on only 20% of his attempts this season, compared to a 25% rate from Joe Flacco and Mike White. I’m projecting Knight’s median closer to 10.5.
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Billy Ward: Sportsbooks continue to show they have no idea how to accurately price this prop.
As an example, this game has a similar spread and roughly seven-point lower total than Lions-Jets. However, we’re getting better odds on the "no" in this game.
Given the low total, this one should be essentially an even-money proposition, making +140 a solid edge.
Also, BetMGM has yet to post odds at the time of writing. Keep an eye out there, as they occasionally differ from the DraftKings line slightly.
